Have you heard of NATO, Western imperialism and being surrounded by military bases? 🤔

Putin is a crook, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not that simple.

What I’ve heard is Russia wants access to the black sea since its crucial to their power projection. Which makes sense. Russia had its puppet running Ukraine until 2014 so they were ok with Ukraine’s sovereignty but the revolution leading to his overthrow open the door for installation of a Western puppet and Russia responded to that by annexing Crimea and eventually war. Zelensky has recently said Ukraine will be letting go of its NATO membership aspirations which should help with achieving peace, especially since leadership in both Russia and the West seem accepting of a war of attrition with Ukrainians stuck in the middle.

Putin’s strategy:

He’s betting that Russia’s authoritarian system can endure high casualties and economic hardship longer than Western democracies can maintain political support for Ukraine. He is waiting for “Ukraine fatigue” to flip elections in the U.S. and Europe.

A state of perpetual war allows the Kremlin to frame all domestic dissent as treason, effectively “cleansing” the Russian political landscape of pro-Western or liberal elements.

West’s strategy

By providing aid incrementally rather than all at once, NATO avoids red lines that might trigger a nuclear escalation or a direct Russia-NATO war. The goal is to weaken Russia slowly enough that the Kremlin doesn’t feel backed into a corner where they resort to extreme options.

The war has forced Western nations to revitalize their neglected defense sectors. This long-term ramp-up in production is seen as necessary to prepare for future conflicts.