Mastodawn

@markmccaughrean Same here. Looks like there will be only one upper stage in the future and it will be neither ICPS nor EUS. But what is it? Block 1B and 2 is cancelled, so why build SLS at all? Block 1 isn't much better than Falcon Heavy or New Glenn, just way more expensive.

It feels more like a punishment for Boeings past actions than a plan for the future.

@urwumpe If I read Berger's piece on ArsTechnica right, there aren't enough Block 1 upper stages left & they'll have to switch to something like Centaur from Vulcan in the future. Which also sounds needlessly complicated.

Plus some unnamed NASA official said "hey, we've already contracted to launch some Gateway bits on Starship, so ..."

You can see where this is all leading ...

@markmccaughrean No nice outlook, going from one big broken delayed launch vehicle to another one of the same kind.

Maybe we should convince ESA and Arianespace to throw their hat in the ring, too. 🤣 (in terms of building working upper stages, actually not the most stupid idea)

@urwumpe The fundamental issue with ESA and Arianespace doing that is that there's probably precious little public & political appetite for a sovereign lunar programme.

That's a heavyweight game for superpowers waving their bits around, where cost is relatively little object, & my sense is that European citizens (probably rightly) have a whole host of other priorities.

@markmccaughrean thats right, but on the other hand, ESA is already involved and still hopes to get some of their astronauts to the moon, too. We shouldn't have an interest in Artemis failing (without a good alternative plan).

@urwumpe Oh, I agree completely – ESA has invested a lot in the ESM, Gateway, & dare I say it, MSR ERO, & we have a strong interest in seeing the programme work.

But the fact that ESA wasn't mentioned at all in anything said yesterday suggests that yet again, any collaboration with NASA, especially under the current warmongers, comes with huge risks.

Mark McCaughrean

@urwumpe But turning that into a sovereign European human exploration programme is quite another thing, & personally, I see little real political stomach for it, based on a lack of broad public interest.

Going back to the Moon isn't about space, really – it's about superpower geopolitics, & Europe has a very different take on that, I'd say.

As is the unprovoked attack on Iran this morning, which caused me to get dropped from the Today programme.

@markmccaughrean oh, did it get considered so important what two bullies do with a third one? 🤯

(I wouldn't have called it unprovoked. Just a good opportunity for Israeli revenge while nobody will complain about it.)

I fear more, that we Europeans (including UK) fail to develop a long term vision of our place in the world and a long term strategy to pursue it. Including manned spaceflight. We just hitchhike into space and pay too much for it without being able to decide, where its going.

@urwumpe I’d agree that Europe (in the widest sense) lack a clear strategy for its place in a world that’s being divided up by the New Great Powers, & there’s complacency in politicians & the public about that.

But again, it’s just not clear to me that human spaceflight is a desired or vital part of that – the space bubble obsession with the manifest destiny of living among the stars is totally irrelevant for most people.

As for attacking Iran, let’s call it “unnecessary”.