Voters will start voting shortly in the Gorton & Denton by-election, which like all by-elections will be seen as indicator of national trends, however much locals might want this to be about their constituency.
Its become a three way contest between the Green Part of England & Wales & Reform UK Ltd, with the Labour Party just about holding on to support according to polling.
In less that 24 hours whether Zac Polanski has pulled off a major acceleration for the Greens will be clear!
@ChrisMayLA6 While the best result would be a Green win, the most interesting result will be if Reform come third- regardless of what order Green and Labour fill the two slots above, that would do the most to blow a hole in the "split vote" argument.
(The funniest would be the Lib Dems winning it somehow)
However, should Reform win, we can expect Labour to say it's the Greens' fault rather than their own for not giving people anything to vote for. Which I guess would make a change from the usual "Government doesn't normally win by-elections" excuse.
yes, early tomorrow morning there is gong to be major attempt by all parties at narrative building....
Emeritus Prof Christopher May
beemoh