ElaFeb 22

I've had a chance to use Opus 4.6 a bit, not just for coding tasks, but for other typical corporate management activities too, like reading and writing policies, understanding bookkeeping, etc.

And I have some scary news. Sure it makes mistakes, but for a person treating it as an extended information processing tool instead of outsourcing thinking to it, not more so than your average junior developer, outsourcing partner, big four consultant below partner level. It just delivers results much, much faster.

It's not hard to imagine a world in which racking up a €1000 AI bill per day per person driving it isn't just considered normal, but cost effective.

We'll see exponential hunger for AI compute, in a world in which chip production scales linearly at best. And the implications for energy consumption are shocking.

We'll also see the market for junior developers dry up. And no one has an idea where new senior developers who actually can meaningfully manage AI dev work will come from.

We live in interesting times, and not in the best sense of this phrase.

Show threadfellmoon 🏴Feb 25

@ela jap. I started using opus 4.5 last week at $dayjob, switched to 4.6 on monday, when it was made available to us... I'm not able to audit it's code properly, because it's a lot better then me at coding. But it writes single use scripts for single use analyses jobs in less then 10% of the time I'd need. My employer just made annulment contract offerings to 5% the Tech Workforce, people who the company thinks are not retrainable to modern work+ai.

I'm not in a position to refuse LLM usage for ideology-reasons and the way I think I will heavily benefit from this tooling - as much as I despite the associated problems.

For the first time in my life I'm seriously thinking about what job outside of tech I'll have to build over the next decade, because I doubt there will be a place for me after that.

Show threadEla
@fellmoon It's not just IT, it's all knowledge worker jobs. And I think the answer is in the meta game, someone still needs to orchestrate.
Feb 26 at 6:52amWeb
Show threadfellmoon 🏴Feb 26
@ela *somewhat sad nod* jap, question is how many orchestrators does one need or want and what does it do to the rest of society. Basically capitalist-accelerators ultimate love-child...
Show threadElaFeb 26
@fellmoon Basically, learn how to grow food. And try to grab a piece of land that will support that despite *wild gesture pointing at everything*