OptionalFeb 24

MAGA Women Shoot Themselves in the Uh, Foot. Again.

https://lemmy.world/post/43540513

Show threadOptionalFeb 24

This is from USA Today. This is where political journalism is:

Will the SAVE America Act pass the Senate? Odds, predictions

The odds of the SAVE America Act passing the Senate and signed into law in 2026 are 12% according to the Polymarket betting odds, and the Kalshi market odds show 13.9% confidence that it will become law.

SAVE Act signed into law in 2026? Predictions & Odds | Polymarket

View real-time odds for "SAVE Act signed into law in 2026?" as of February 24, 2026 and trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Polymarket
Show threadFiniteBanjo
TBF the betting platforms had higher accuracy than aggregate polls in 2024.
Feb 24 at 10:43pmWeb
Show threadFlexibleToastFeb 24
I definitely trust the prediction markets more than just about any poll.
Show threadFiniteBanjoFeb 25
IDK about that, but credit where due they aren’t a terrible source.
Show threadchuckleslordFeb 25
Nah, I once made a hundred bucks because they had Doug Jones losing to that pedo. They’d just as fallible as anything else.
Show threadFlexibleToastFeb 25
I mean, nothing is 100%.
Show threadGathorallFeb 25
Well, nothing anyone would allow you to bet on.
Show threadspencerwiFeb 25
Why would I need Steve Kornacki or whoever when I’ve got degenerate gamblers?
Show threadFishFaceFeb 24
Betting platforms aggregate the beliefs of the people betting on them, but this means that biases of that group affect the odds.
Show threadFiniteBanjoFeb 25
People who receive and respond to polls are also a subset with biases.
Show threadmycodesucksFeb 25
That’s true, but also a group that has a real and vested interest in getting the answer RIGHT. That helps.