Weltzeitgeist
I, for one, would expect that the smartest investor of all-time is onto something. Long T-Bonds all the way. But you do you.
Feb 24 at 3:32pmWeb
Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24

That's the best insurrance against a stock-market crash. He's earning 4-4,5% on $380 billion each year for doing nothing and after a crash, we're gonna see ZIRP while QE is already on going.

Bond rates will go to 1% and he's making a very last huuuuge profit which he can invest in the best firms that survive the tsunami.

He can just wait and be relaxed while everybody else is investing in AI on leverage..

Show threadAndrocatFeb 24
@wackJackle I would like to point out that overall, it is entirely possible that he has just been randomly lucky.
Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24
@androcat Na, that's mathematically impossible to beat the stock market or the overall market for almost every year for over 70 years or so..
Show threadAndrocatFeb 24

@wackJackle It's not, actually.
Someone did the numbers and based on the very large numbers of stock market participants, one or two consistently lucky ones is perfectly possible.

What IS mathematically impossible is to Break The Market - i.e. doing what many people claim Buffett has done, accurately predict outcomes consistently.

It's actually more likely that he just got lucky.

Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24
@androcat Well, let's a agree to disagree. He is a very smart investor but he definetly got sometimes very lucky but that's just part of the casino isn't it?
Show threadAndrocatFeb 24

@wackJackle Some sorts of investments are probably smarter than others.

OTOH, I don't think he's a good guy, so it would be rather bad if he had actually cracked the code.

Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24
@androcat Yeah, I don't think he's good guy either but I think that you can still something of his investment ideas personally. Long time investing, diservification, real-value investing, understanding the product, safeguards if the end of the bull market is in sight, and so on...
Show threadAndrocatFeb 24

@wackJackle General prudence, and smelling a bubble before it bursts.

But most of us here can do that. We just don't have money for gambling.

Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24
@androcat Yeah, that's true. I'm not an investor, just here and there. I just watch the market for the love of the game. It's just a nice hobby of mine for the last 20years and sometimes I made some money.
Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24
@androcat I never lost something though. Buy early, just wait and sell if you have a nice profit..
Show threadgtewallaceFeb 24
@wackJackle I'd be interested in the line as a % of assets under mgmt
Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24
@gtewallace Here, that last balance sheet. So it's roughly 25-30% of the balance sheet.
Show threadgtewallaceFeb 24
@wackJackle thanks. I will dig up some historicals to build a trend line (unless someone knows)
Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24

@gtewallace If you like to do it. I don't know if this was done already.

Here is the raw data: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/reports.html

Show threadgtewallaceFeb 24
@wackJackle thank you! I will get to this over lunch (in roughly 1 hour)
Show threadgtewallaceFeb 24
@wackJackle
Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24

@gtewallace Thanks, that's very interesting. Amazing work. The build up after the dotcom crash when interest rates were rising and then the long down trend in the ZIRP after the GFC are interesting.

Yeah, and then the change in mind with the higher interest rate to fight inflation. I mean, it isn't complicated to learn something from him.. :)

Show threadgtewallaceFeb 24
@wackJackle yea but the recent scale up in t bills that you caught is definitely very interesting... thanks for the collab 🙌🏼
Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24
@gtewallace thank you, too. appreciated.
Show threadWeltzeitgeistFeb 24
@gtewallace Also, almost all the time no less than 20% bonds and cash as a hedge against stock market crashes or some other black swan events, wars, etc..