Emeritus Prof Christopher MayFeb 22

Perhaps unsurprisingly given the bookies' odds, tactical voting advice (now going online) for the Gorton & Denton by-election is focussing on voting Green (Hannah Spencer) as the best route to block a win by ReformUK Ltd.

This is exactly what Labour fears; as the Green Parties (of England & Wales, and Scottish) become the best route for tactical voters, their support will start to consolidate more widely sapping Labour's remaining support.

#GortonAndDenton #politics
https://stopreformuk.vote/parl/gorton-and-denton

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Show threadPete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Feb 22

@ChrisMayLA6
They could have cared even slightly about losing the progressive vote any time in the last 10 years, and they wouldn't have to fear it now that it's happening.

They even had a recent clear warning: at the last GE the Greens took some seats. The seal is broken; nobody can say Green is a wasted vote now.

That was the time to understand Labour's election win came not from moving right, but disgust with the Tories, and how fragile it'd be if their "Change" slogan was empty.

Show threadPino CarafaFeb 22

@petealexharris @ChrisMayLA6 This is the one saving grace in the UK's version of their FPTP system. In the UK, "hung" parliaments are at least possible. The FPTP system makes them a lot less common, but it can happen.

So if the Greens find themselves in a "Kingmaker" position, there is one thing they must insist on: a hard commitment from their coalition partner to replace the FPTP voting system with something like PR-STV or vanilla PR. No coalition without it. Period.

Show threadScurra
@rozeboosje @petealexharris @ChrisMayLA6
Yeah, well, look how the LibDems got screwed with that one. (TBH, they didn't really understand either the power they had or the fate that inevitably awaited them as a junior partner if the system didn't change.) But it's also true that the situation has changed drastically since 2010 and if Labour or the Tories want to survive, they will need to do it.
Feb 22 at 1:15pmWeb
Show threadPino CarafaFeb 22

@Scurra @petealexharris @ChrisMayLA6

1/2

This is the problem that every "junior" coalition partner faces. The bigger party is usually voted in by people who simply vote for them for no better reason than that they always have. The smaller party gets more votes than usual because voters have high hopes. At the end of the term the bigger party is fine because nobody had high expectations of THEM, while the small party gets clobbered because their voters are disappointed in them.

Show threadPino CarafaFeb 22

@Scurra @petealexharris @ChrisMayLA6

2/2

The Lib Dems should have realised this. Their strategy should have been: change the voting system, if nothing else, do that. Accept that they will lose votes in the next election, but with the new system in place the end result may actually be surprisingly reasonable, even for them. Now leverage the new system for better results.

Show threadEmeritus Prof Christopher MayFeb 22

@rozeboosje @Scurra @petealexharris

They did try that but made a hash of the referendum....

Show threadPino CarafaFeb 22
@ChrisMayLA6 @Scurra @petealexharris Which is funny because, as I understand it, a referendum wouldn't even have been required?