I've had a chance to use Opus 4.6 a bit, not just for coding tasks, but for other typical corporate management activities too, like reading and writing policies, understanding bookkeeping, etc.

And I have some scary news. Sure it makes mistakes, but for a person treating it as an extended information processing tool instead of outsourcing thinking to it, not more so than your average junior developer, outsourcing partner, big four consultant below partner level. It just delivers results much, much faster.

It's not hard to imagine a world in which racking up a €1000 AI bill per day per person driving it isn't just considered normal, but cost effective.

We'll see exponential hunger for AI compute, in a world in which chip production scales linearly at best. And the implications for energy consumption are shocking.

We'll also see the market for junior developers dry up. And no one has an idea where new senior developers who actually can meaningfully manage AI dev work will come from.

We live in interesting times, and not in the best sense of this phrase.

@ela i still do not see how this would work. How many senior developers, administrators or managers do you see letting the AI explain the balance sheets or write policies, so that a daily €1000 bill makes sense, per … (what sized?) company?

We are now talking about companies burning („investing“, into rapidly depreciating computers) around 500 billion €/$ per year (2027 projection), let’s say that stuff keeps running 5 years, then still 8.3 million of these€1k users are needed to pay the bills.

@ela ah, sorry… 1k/day! Ok, then make that 400‘000 people… still, I’m not convinced… 🤷‍♂️