Jenny ChaseFeb 17

When I see this sort of headline, I pull up BloombergNEF's solar exports from China tool, and yeah, Cuba was the destination for $117 million (about 1.3GW) of Chinese solar panels in 2025. This is up from approximately nothing in 2023.

Cuba had 6.8GW of power capacity total at the end of 2024, none of which was solar, 5.4GW of which was oil and 0.9GW gas. Solar slides nicely into an oil-heavy grid, pushing out expensive consumption immediately.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-cuba-oil-supply-power-grid-blackout/

Show threadJenny ChaseFeb 17

1. We don't have to depend on the whims of fossil tyrants for our electricity any more.

2. dammit I need to add Cuba to my solar demand spreadsheet and then the rest of the Bloomberg data system.

Show threaddr2chaseFeb 17
@solar_chase I've lately wished for a graph showing likely estimates of the cost of "solar panels and batteries to provide 24/7 power".
(e.g./simplifying, for 24/7 1kW from 8 hours daily sun, you need 3kW solar + 16kWH battery, costing X$ to install w/ service life of Y years). And then how many fusion/dinky-fission startup business plans does that kill?
Show threadLeon OverweelFeb 18
@dr2chase @solar_chase this sounds a lot like work Ember did last summer: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/solar-electricity-every-hour-of-every-day-is-here-and-it-changes-everything/
Solar electricity every hour of every day is here and it changes everything | Ember

Batteries are now cheap enough to unleash solar energy’s full potential, getting as close as 97% of the way to delivering constant electricity supply 24 hours across 365 days cost-effectively in the sunniest places.

Ember
Show threadJenny ChaseFeb 19

@leonoverweel @dr2chase yeah, I saw that report and while I don't think it is bad or wrong per se, it's a little misleading for somewhere like Birmingham where demand will peak in the winter as well.

Like, the 'baseload' assumption is okay for a thought experiment (we used it in Saudi Arabia because it's like a data center) but the actual best pathway to net zero electricity in Birmingham is a lot more wind-heavy, and if you pushed solar + storage to 62% you would force out wind.

Show threadJenny ChaseFeb 19

@leonoverweel @dr2chase I spend my life telling people to be a bit cautious about how to treat seasonality.

Batteries are really big! Bigger than I imagined! I was just walloped with news of really big (>3GW) solar and storage (mixed- co-located and standalone) plans in North Macedonia and the Philippines, being built this year. But still seasonality is going to mean that batteries cannibalize battery revenues sooner than imo some people realize.

Show threadJenny ChaseFeb 19

.... North Macedonia, man. It's got 1.8 million people and under 3GW (edited) of total power generating capacity. And plans to build 3,014MW of PV projects, plus 2,207MW/4,961MWh of storage, afaict this year.

Maybe the solution for net zero is simply big cheap batteries after all.

(Two years ago I would have been sure this was fake / unserious / I was misreading).

https://energy.gov.mk/en-GB/odnosi-so-javnost/soopstenija/drzavata-voveduva-red-vo-energetikata-usvoen-godisniot-plan-za-izgradba-na-energetski-objekti-za-2026-godina

The state introduces order in the energy sector: Annual Plan for construction of energy facilities for 2026 adopted - Statements - Public relations - Ministry of Energy, Mining and Mineral Resources - Republic of North Macedonia

The state introduces order in the energy sector: Annual Plan for construction of energy facilities for 2026 adopted Statements Public relations Ministry of energy, mining and raw materials

Show threadHendrik WeimerFeb 19

@solar_chase

Solar panels + batteries beat the hell out of everything else. If you want to, you can simulate this yourself: https://sonnenwende.codeberg.page/

It's for Germany, but for a more southern country like North Macedonia, the situation is even more lopsided.

Sonnenwende

Show threadAbdullah Khalid

@solar_chase @hweimer I played around with this. Seems interesting.

I would like some more stats to know how I am doing. A monthly/yearly history of

- how many units were generated by solar panels (perhaps relative to available sunlight)
- similar measures for batteries and others
- profits, perhaps broken by source (sold by solar panel, sold by battery, etc).

Feb 21 at 11:13pmWeb