Rekall IncorporatedThis mess is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Ex NummisThe longer this goes on the more it seems like the explicit goal rather than a side effect.
rozodrubingo. And any companies that do make it out the other end of this will transition to subscriptions for their stuff. HP is already rolling this out for their laptops. The end goal is to stop people from owning stuff but pay a monthly subscription on it. and if you want to own a device outright, prepare to pay a premium.
horn_e4_beaverMarket manipulation, innit?
Granbo's Holy HotrodI saw a post that they plan on most office jobs will be obsolete in the next 2 years.
I love how we have to protect Taiwan against Chinese annexation because the World relies on their chips, but when extremely large corporations basically take away the World’s supply of chips it is supposed to be fine.
At least with the Crypto and now the AI craze we are at least getting used to shortages from the eventual war of the chips
Coming to a potato farm near you
No1Hashes… Chips…
You may be onto something here. I’m going all in on SPUD.
How about instead of building concentration camps, we build chip factories, and employ all the people we’re abusing? Then they can spend their earnings, and pay taxes, and stimulate the economy.
Or we can lock them up, create a chip shortage, destroy otherwise viable companies, and keep our economy limping along, satisfied with the false metric of the Stock Market as a score.
Yeah, I wouldn’t give the current admin any ideas. It’d be less of a “employ all the people” and more of a “work will set you free” type of arrangement.
We tried that, then PEDOnald took away that factory insourcing money.
How about instead of building concentration camps, we build chip factories, and employ all the people we’re abusing? Then they can spend their earnings, and pay taxes, and stimulate the economy.
Not sure if there are sarcasm tags here, but the capital costs for a leading edge chip factory are unreal. It took a transition from a dictatorship to a democracy, a lot of blurring between capitalism and a planned economy, decades of concentrated investment, and luck for TSMC to get where they are.
As a national effort in the US, it’d make the Apollo Program seem trivial. It’d be a bit like saying “lets turn all the immigrants into astronauts.”
Not that the immigration situation isn’t utterly cruel and ridiculous and that we should be bringing these people in with open arms, but one can’t just will chipmaking into existance quickly. It’s extremely difficult. It’s why the potential collapse of Intel is such a calamity, as it would be almost impossible to rebuild, and why the atrophy of Global Foundries can’t be reversed as much as Europe would like to.
But it’s not a bubble!
If I wrote a fictional story about a critical component of modern society being manufactured on a single island, and then had that island invaded by the neighboring nation causing the rest of the world to collapse, I’m pretty sure people would dismiss the story.
But here we are. Any country not scrambling to build local fabs are in danger.
This is arguably about an un(der?)regulated futures market gone wild. If you can buy all the production for the year, before it’s even been produced, you’re going to create a shortage. One could argue that supply and demand is out of whack and that more fabs = more supply to meet demand, but if Western Digital completely sold out of hard drives when we’re only 1/6 of the way through the year then more supply isn’t really the way to fix it.
TetragradeThis is a really interesting point. It seems to suggest that the self-organising property of markets isn’t just from supply & demand, but also requires some other conditions (that demand is widely distributed politically? or in space & time?) and that any market with a sufficiently wealthy actor loses its predictive power, because they can destroy those conditions whenever it benefits them.
Doesn’t even seem to be related to the fact that they had exclusive purchase rights. Lacking that, you could buy far in the future after everyone else has put in their orders.
Supply and demand hold where there is competition within and across all the market layers. This has rarely held in IT and the hardware market has always had these problems at smaller scales where the capacity of suppliers or demand is so skewed that certain actors on the market have to be appeased at the cost of long term health of the industry.
That is to say we had ample warning that was ignored.
Well… The ram manufacturers will have a great surprise when AI doesn’t continue growing exponentially and all their other customers have died.
But at least we made the line go up this quarter I guess.
MimicJarI doubt RAM manufacturers will feel any pain. From the article,
Pua Khein-Seng is further said to have highlighted that memory manufacturers are now “demanding three years’ worth of prepayment (unprecedented in the electronics industry)”
If they’re really being prepaid three years in advance that’s a huge cushion. Of course this assumes that it’s really money and not just a contract for more money.
I don’t think RAM manufacturers will feel any pain. There might be fewer consumer electronics manufacturers after this, but the same demand for consumer electronics. There will be about the same level of production, but just by fewer manufacturers.
LLMs haven’t been growing exponentially for the past 2 years. What we are seeing right now are the final stages of optimizing the product(by OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.), and initial stages of consumers/companies figuring out actual effective areas of application.
Effective areas of application are basically nil.
Not sure what else to say really.
^ this is a take that’s only possible by being mis/uninformed. Talk to software engineers this month and ask if Claude Code is effective in their field.
I work in IT, I’m not a coder. I’ve seen this stuff used for office things and the output from all that is basically trash.
It’s like having a child for an assistant who is high on LSD all the time but has a remarkable grasp on the English language despite all of that, and they speak incredibly confidently regardless of the topic.
The work basically needs to be double checked at every step and often needs to be rewritten. It doesn’t really save time, just moves your workload from producing the text to being a copy editor.
I’m an experienced programmer. I’ve used Claude Code and though it’s initially impressive the results are still hit and miss. If the job is very simple and/or you’re starting from scratch it can do OK but it takes a bit of time to review what it did. If it isn’t simple or you’re working on a large and complex code base the chances of it getting it right get low enough that you’re on balance better off doing it yourself. You’re going to have to review all the changes carefully anyway, and if they’re not right you’ll be backing them out and retrying different prompts repeatedly when you could just be writing the code.
and initial stages of consumers/companies figuring out actual effective areas of application.
aaaaaaaaahahahahahahaaaaaaaahahahahaaaaaa.
Not.
This won’t happen because they need consumer electronics to enslave the population.
MwaHahahahahaha…
Oh wait, you’re serious? Same, but it won’t be over soon.
The whole market will crash when AI takes a dive. I’m hoping for that to happen soon but given how much money the companies involved have and can get… Probably not anytime soon.
Yeah i was serious.
But i said soon cause OpenAI And many AI companies are burning through alot of money.
But i said soon cause OpenAI And many AI companies are burning through alot of money.
Yeah, but they have backing from companies with deep pockets. Apple and Microsoft are leveraging chatGPT on their back end, so they’re not going to run out of money until that well dries up.
I know Apple has been very open with creating their own LLM, and Microsoft isn’t exactly hiding the fact that they are too.
The one that will be hard to squash is Gemini, since it’s fairly far along in terms of development and it’s also backed by Google. Being backed by Google is either a sign that it won’t ever die, or that it will be cut in the next 18 months and end up as another item on killedbygoogle.com
What the fuck is happening to journalism? What is “reportedly says” supposed to mean? Did he say that and you are reporting on it, or did it come to you in a dream?
It’s because they machine translated the direct quote. It means “here’s the direct quote in English, but we cannot absolutely guarantee that it is a flawless translation.”
They’re clear about that in the article.
And that’s reasonable for these internet tech outlets, which don’t have much budget for (say) human translators for every little blurb these days. TBH it’s a miracle PCG is still operating at all.
So do your best to keep your current equipment in tip top shape, learn how to solder, learn electrical schematics, learn how to replace components on a circuit board and NEVER throw away a broken electronic anymore.
2026 and on might be a way for repair to come back strong, but at the same time, we can’t repair without parts, so it’s a double edged sword. SSD’s only have a 5-10 year life span, so we are ALL screwed and i’m really hoping my new NVME SSD’s last a decade.
All gaming consoles and PC’s are doomed for the next decade, so hopefully everyone has books, retro consoles, and physical media to consume when their gaming equipment dies as it eventually will in that time frame.