Measuring Labor Market Tightness: Data Update and New Web Feature https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/01/measuring-labor-market-tightness-data-update-and-new-web-feature/
"… Traditional tightness measures such as vacancies over unemployment (V/U) also do a relatively good job in predicting wage growth until about 2015, when V/U begins to falter. The steady deterioration in the forecasting performance of vacancy-based measures such as V/U and V/ES on its own aligns with earlier work finding that the relationship between vacancies and other labor market variables has shifted over time.

Our findings suggest that the HPW Index and the quits rate are the best predictors of wage growth in the next quarter. Going forward, the web feature https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/labor-market-tightness launched today will update both a quarterly and a monthly series of HPW in conjunction with the ECI, to track wage pressures in real time"
#LaborMarkets #wages