1/n My takeaway from "The Arsenal of Democracy" (Hoover Inst.) is stark: The West has effectively lost the first battle of WW3. To survive, the US is now sacrificing Europe to buy time for itself.
The book reveals US generals are convinced they cannot currently win a war against China. While public rhetoric remains diplomatic, internal assessments of key capabilities (ISR, Logistics, Strike, Industrial Base) show the US is structurally behind or at risk in every domain.
2/3 The emerging US strategy is a "soft yield" to China to buy time. The priority is stalling until TSMC completes its fabs in Arizona to secure US tech autonomy. Once done, Washington may largely step back from Taiwan.
In this implicit transaction, it is highly probable Beijing required the US to drop Ukraine, allowing Russia to avoid defeat. The US is effectively throwing its European commitments under the bus to prioritize its own strategic survival and industrial rebuilding.
3/3 Asian allies (Japan, S. Korea) see this weakness with alarm. They understand Chinese influence won't stop at Taiwan.
Conclusion: The new US strategy is stark realism. Facing an industrial deficit, they are jettisoning allies in Europe and Asia to buy the necessary time to reconstruct their own military health. The era of US protection is paused for reconstruction.
#Geopolitics #HooverInstitution #China #Defense #ForeignPolicy #Europe #Strategy
Yannick Bollati