myrmepropagandist

Polymarket and Kalshi are NOT gambling companies. How could you say that?

I'm literally crying right now. When will the misinformation stop?

Please understand that it can't be gambling if there is a chart like it's the stock market and if there is an app where you can look at the chart before you bet- I mean invest in the prediction market.

Charts and graphs mean that this is science and science can't be gambling.

Dec 7 at 10:41amWeb
Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

Hey anyone want to start a "prediction market" for scientific discoveries? Paper publication and peer review results? We could get as rich as sin.

By sinning.

At some point I start feeling foolish for not just giving up and joining the circus. We would need a good lawyer though. Who knows the law around here?

Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

"But a prediction market for scientific discoveries might have perverse impacts on journals, and scientists."

No no no... gambling on things has no impact on the things. No one would ever use inside influence to make a quick buck by changing the outcome of an event with a lot of bets placed on it. This is all pure and above board and an excellent idea.

Show threadJosh JersildDec 7
@futurebird I asked all the LLMs and they all agreed that this was true
Show threadNot a Spring OnionDec 7

@futurebird

"Here at Pandemic Inc, we are creating custom-tailored on-demand pathogens to influence emerging health and productivity prediction markets."

Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

@wakame

yay...

good lord

Show threadnotsoloudDec 7
@wakame
SUPPORT emerging markets would be a more likely word choice 😉
@futurebird
Show threadPeterDec 7
@futurebird I was listening to a podcast yesterday that said CNN were using one of these companies' output instead of polling during the recent elections in the USA. Which seems bizarre, if not wholly irresponsible.
Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

@sarble

This "prediction market" rebranding of gambling is Thirty Years Old. They were talking about this when I was in college.

"Since people have to bet money the predictions of these markets are more accurate than polls."

This statement can be true... for a time. It's true as long as only a small number of people are paying attention to the markets. As the profile of the markets grows their predictive ability tanks and perverse feedback loops are created.

Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

@sarble

Eventually there is enough money in the market that manipulating the results becomes too lucrative to avoid.

This is why even though this "idea" was proposed 30 years ago very few people were biting. We have entered a regulation-free space suddenly where we may learn why these things are a terrible idea.

But, people have known this for thousands of years. It's why gambling is "a sin" -- it produces nothing and only incentivizes lying and cheating.

Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

@sarble

It is important that gambling is limited to narrow spheres such as lotteries and maybe horse races. Even then you get cheating and corruption.

It's not good for predicting the future because as soon as people think this is true you get manipulation. Then people try to ride the manipulation to make money.

For the love of God go make a real product and sell it like normal capitalists. Stop trying to milk someone's uncle's gambling addiction to make a quick buck.

Show threadPeterDec 7
@futurebird I was just about to say something similar, but you've phrased it more succinctly and clearly. For gambling to work on its own terms (leaving aside its other potential harms) it has to be tightly regulated – see how much importance casinos etc. place on players following their rules. It's like anything corrosive, has to be able to be contained to be useful.
Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

@sarble

There is a reason people associate gambling with some guy who comes and breaks your legs for not paying your debt. It's bottom feeder stuff, you sell a bet or you make loans when you have nothing of real value to offer the world. And people latch on to all of these desperate dreams and end up murderously angry at each other.

We KNOW this is how it works.

Putting it in an app with a cute little chart and calling it a "prediction market" won't change that one bit.

Show threadThierry Van KermDec 7
@futurebird @sarble @futurebird Second market stock exchange should be banned. Full stop. It doesn't bring A CENT to the company concerned with the stock exchange/gambling
Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

@sarble

Though I have to admit that claiming that having people betting somehow creates value by creating predictions of future events is very creative.

But if predictions were your product you'd be selling the predictions. The whole operation would be inverted. You'd select random people to place bets, give them play money and keep the results secret to sell.

But no one cares. It's just gambling and people will get hurt because of it.

Show threadDeb Nam-KraneDec 7
@futurebird Possibly because my maternal grandfather was a gambling addict, but I look at the stock market in the same way, and can't stop thinking about everyone in it as a sucker. Yeah, there are some whales, but, as they say, the house always wins, so it's just a matter of time. (Which is why the whales keep trying to control the SEC, but I digress.) @sarble
Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

@dnkboston @sarble

Gambling can be a prison for some people and it hurts to think about all of the people who will be exploited in this way.

I don't think your skepticism of even "legitimate" markets is misplaced. That dream of just making the right call and getting so rich is very seductive. The emotional rush of the whole process has deep impacts on the human brain.

It exploits that good plucky part of us that always wants to "try again"

Show threadDeb Nam-KraneDec 7
@futurebird Ooh, that's a chillingly accurate way to put it @sarble
Show threadapophisDec 7
@futurebird @dnkboston @sarble this all just leaves me even more convinced that the big fundamental difference between now and 20 years ago is that all the people responsible for the subprime crash had taken the extra capital made available through the bailouts and diversified into every industry
Show threadDeb Nam-KraneDec 7
@apophis And spread their mischief? Possibly, but I think you'll find a lot of it is weighted toward tech. @sarble @futurebird
Show threadflere-imsaho 🇺🇦Dec 7
@dnkboston @futurebird @sarble it sure behaves like a casino, and most people lose – because you need to be either rich enough or very, very patient to weather the risk. impulsive people can't win there.
Show threadPeterDec 7
@dnkboston @futurebird Absolutely agree.
Show threadPeterDec 7
@futurebird I don't know how well supported this is, but I remember reading an article, or a chapter in a book, that said that there had been research that people who took the biggest risks were those who were probably already screwed or those for whom failure could be easily mitigated. It's hard for me not to see the worming of gambling into every corner of society through that lens (in the UK and US at least), as we separate out ever more into those who have way more than enough and those who seem to be always looking down the end of a barrel.
Show thread@stevewfoldsDec 7
@futurebird @sarble
Met a debt collector who bragged that he’d hit more kneecaps than home runs with his bat in ‘72.
Show threadThierry Van KermDec 7
@futurebird @sarble @futurebird And that's on this second market that billionaires make their insane wealth. All at the expenses of the company they gamble the stock of
Show threadK M LawrenceDec 7
@futurebird @sarble I mean, there are other reasons for that. It's changed in the last 30 years, but in the UK at least gambling debts used to be legally unenforceable (ie if you owe someone 10 grand, they can't sue you for it), so the only recourse for bookies was to either ban debtors or rough them up. I think in the US it's kind of patchwork, but it may be that a similar history of "the only way I can get my money is by force" exists. (Although that doesn't invalidate your point, since it means that only people relaxed about violence can go into the profession and make money)
Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7
*sings*
"And the devil will drag you under, by the sharp lapels of your checker'd coat."
Show threadMichael BuschDec 7

@futurebird

I regret to report knowing that people have tried to set up "prediction markets" for gambling on science. e.g. Robin Hanson set one up for people gambling on fusion research.

(Hanson is also known for being a sexually harassing creep and for promoting an apocalyptic AI cult).

Show threaddstuDec 7
@futurebird I worked on https://www.iarpa.gov/research-programs/fuse back when it was still active. The basic idea was to predict trends in research to assist humans in understanding new research proposals. (One version of the pitch was that it should be possible to use the results of this program to review BAA future proposals.) I vaguely recall that prediction markets may have been in the running.
FUSE

Today, the identification and assessment of emerging technical capabilities is a time-consuming, domain-specific, and expert-intensive process. This demanding process is often carried out under severe time constraints on either too much or too little data, with limited reproducible auditing and bias controls, and...

Show threadPeterDec 7
@futurebird Wondering if all this *gestures expansively* is actually how most civilisational collapse happens. Like, what if the 'sea peoples' event was just all the eastern Mediterranean societies just collectively losing their minds.
Show threadmyrmepropagandistDec 7

@sarble

Can I bet on when civilization will collapse? You got that inside lead? Help a girl out here.

Show threadPeterDec 7

@futurebird *tries to stand in front of warehouse full of ominous looking computers and people sitting at screen*

no?

*places bet on Kalshi*

yes?

Show threadEmilie Ciortrans   Dec 7
@futurebird I don't have any leads but I do know a fair amount of people dedicated to making it collapse sooner
Show threadjoel cretanDec 7
@futurebird @sarble you probably can but it might be hard to collect when it happens
Show threadDeb Nam-KraneDec 7
@sarble I thought it was food insecurity, but why not both? @futurebird
Show threadVirginicusDec 7
@futurebird Scientists do not play dice with the Universe.
Show threadTwotiredDec 7
@futurebird I bet you’re right.
Show threadirelephantDec 7
@futurebird the stock market has always just been gambling for rich people.
Show threadjoel cretanDec 7
@futurebird yeah and I mean obviously the stock market is not gambling on your expectations of other people’s expectations of your expectations
Show threadWil MacaulayDec 8
@futurebird I mean… short selling is kind of a prediction market…. But how about a prediction market on the death of public figures? No negative incentives there, right?