"The report’s outlook for global renewable capacity growth is revised downward slightly compared with last year, mainly due to policy changes in the United States and in China.

These adjustments are partly offset by buoyancy in other regions – India, Europe and most emerging and developing economies – where growth prospects have been revised upward due to ambitious new policies, expanded auction volumes, faster permitting and rising deployment of rooftop solar."

https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025/executive-summary

"In emerging economies across Asia, the Middle East and Africa, cost competitiveness and stronger policy support are spurring faster growth of renewables, with many governments introducing new auction programmes and raising their targets. India is on course to become the second-largest renewables growth market globally, after China, and is expected to comfortably reach its ambitious target by 2030."

https://www.iea.org/news/global-renewable-capacity-is-set-to-grow-strongly-driven-by-solar-pv

One of the best aspects:

"The deployment of renewables has already reduced fuel import needs significantly in many countries.

Since 2010, the world added around 2 500 GW of non-hydro renewable power capacity, about 80% of which was installed in countries that rely on fossil fuel imports.

As a result, countries have reduced coal imports by 700 million tonnes and natural gas imports by 400 billion cubic metres, saving an estimated USD 1.3 trillion since 2010."

https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025/executive-summary

"By 2030, variable renewables will generate almost 30% of global electricity supply, double today’s level. This calls for a rapid increase in flexibility and grid investment.

Curtailment & negative prices signal a lack of flexibility in electricity systems and/or a mismatch between supply and demand at certain times.

Demand-side flexibility (e.g. smart EV chargers or heat pumps), storage (short and long term) and dispatchable power plants will be increasingly needed."

https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025/executive-summary

The energy transition could be going faster:

"Global renewable power capacity is now expected to rise by 4,600 GW by 2030 - down from the six-year forecast of 5,500 GW in 2024

The downward revision is mainly due to an early phase-out of U.S. federal tax incentives and other regulatory changes - lowering the IEA's U.S. growth expectations by almost 50% - while China's shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions is squeezing project economics.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/iea-trims-renewables-outlook-us-policy-shifts-china-auction-reforms-weigh-2025-10-07/

"The IEA slashed in half its forecast for US renewable energy growth by 2030.

The reduction compared to last year’s analysis is due to several policy changes imposed under President Donald Trump, the IEA said. Those include the early phaseout of federal tax credits for clean energy installations, import restrictions, suspension of new offshore wind leases and permit restrictions for solar and wind projects on federal land."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-07/iea-cuts-us-renewable-growth-forecast-in-half-on-trump-policies

"Europe must strive for bolder renewable energy targets to protect the climate, despite making world-record progress."

The report found that global renewable capacity additions reached 582 GW last year.

[Needed:] 1,122 GW of renewable capacity must be added every year from 2025 onward."

https://www.euronews.com/green/2025/10/14/renewables-are-now-the-worlds-biggest-source-of-electricity-is-it-enough-to-stop-climate-c

EMBER report:

21%
Average annual growth rate of renewable additions needed from 2023 to 2030 to meet a tripling of renewable capacity.

29%
Actual annual growth rate of renewables additions from 2023 to 2025.

But also:
National renewable targets still aim for just over a doubling, falling short of a tripling.

https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/renewable-additions-in-2025-are-once-again-expected-to-surge-putting-tripling-within-reach/

"The world is expected to build more renewable energy projects in the next five years than has been rolled out over the last 40, according to the flagship annual report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

It also points to a “renaissance” for nuclear power, driven by major tech companies seeking a steady supply of low-carbon electricity to power their datacentres."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/12/supply-boom-in-cheaper-renewables-will-seal-end-of-fossil-fuel-era-says-iea

BUT ALSO:
"IEA's current policies scenario shows no oil demand peak before 2050.

This scenario takes into account existing government policies and not aspirations to achieve climate goals.

The IEA last used the "current policies scenario" for its predictions in 2019 and switched to predictions more in line with a clean energy transition and pledges of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century from 2020.

This year's outlook ditched the pledges scenario."

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/world-oil-gas-demand-could-grow-until-2050-iea-says-2025-11-12/

Here is the difference between IEA outlooks under current policies (blue lines), and taking into account countries' stated climate ambitions (pink lines).

https://www.ft.com/content/8696254d-1873-434a-96be-88aa690f9b75

These graphs say that increased oil and gas is a choice not an inevitability.

The fossil fuel industry will push hard to keep the world on track on the blue lines.

Our job is to push our governments to steer us on the pink lines. Lower than the pink lines, if we can. It's DIY lobbying now, at every step. Let's go!

"Renewables are now so cheap that the clean energy transition is no longer an economic burden, it is a momentous opportunity.

[Renewables] are also a powerful engine of investment, jobs and growth. They are reshaping the global economy."

https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-is-reshaping-the-global-economy-new-report-268676

Why do the IEA scenarios matter?

"The IEA’s Current Policies Scenario (CPS) was produced following fierce criticism by Trump's pro-fossil fuel administration.

Many of the CPS’s assumptions are highly questionable, such as the expectation of a sharp slowdown in global sales of electric vehicles and smaller gains in petrol car efficiencies."

If you believe the CPS scenario, as an investor you may miss out on big opportunities.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/investors-risk-being-hoodwinked-by-grim-energy-transition-vibes-bousso-2025-11-20/

@wellingtonrock @CelloMomOnCars The AI bubble isn't yet that big a power user. It's a lot of huge numbers and epic claims but the total energy use of data centres is about 4% at this point in the USA for example.

It will grow, although Trump has probably screwed that growth spectacularly since it's simply not possible to build the needed non renewable generation in the USA on the required timescales at this point.