Taking a bribe to let China reverse engineer our next generation fighter jet should be the kind of thing that has consequences. That’s going to cost a lot of lives down the road if things go sideways.

It could cost a lot of American lives. Could also save a bunch of Chinese ones.

If you look at the history of military operations performed by both countries, it’s pretty clear which one is the more likely option

Maybe because the other didn’t have the capacity.

China nowadays has the capacity to steamroll half of asia into compliance. Instead they build alliances/partnerships via trade, even with countries they ideologically disagree with. It’s less profitable in the short-term but leads to more predictable and stable development in the region, which benefits them massively in the long-term. Crazy what you can do if you think in centuries and not quarters.

They don’t have capacity to deal with the US intervening. If not for that, they would 100% be steamrolling everything they could. They’ve done it many times before and they’ll do it again, just like everybody else in history.

China has successfully withstood US intervention and helped communist forces prevail in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. They also semi-successfully done the same in Korea.

They don’t fear US intervention much, it’s just that their modern foreign policy is targeted at stability and growth rather than immediate overthrow of capitalism.

If China tried to invade a country, that would give the US an excuse to come to that country’s defense, and China does not have the resources to deal with that. Since they can’t use hard power, they’re using soft power.

Expecting altruism in geopolitics is hopelessly naïve.

I don’t expect altruism. Stability and economic prosperity in the region is directly beneficial and profitable to China.