From https://t.me/pravdaGerashchenko_en
The main outcome of the recent strike on #Russia's #Novorossiysk was the impact on the 1537th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment’s deployment site.
Its publicly disclosed regimental strength includes two #S_400 divisions (16 launchers) and one #Pantsir_S1 division (6 units), not counting other equipment (command vehicles, transport-loading vehicles, communications, etc.).
Satellite imagery of the area showed between 5 and 12 deployed #S_400 launchers.
#OSINT analyst #M_T_Anderson reviewed an image from November 11, two days before the strike, and noted 7 deployed #S_400 launchers, excluding other equipment.
There is now confirmation that #Ukrainian Special Operations Center A of the #SBU destroyed 4 #S_400 launchers (a full battery), an early-warning radar, and a target-acquisition radar. In total, there could have been up to 12 launchers in the drone strike zone.
Even if some of them were decoys, the strike and the detonation of the missile storage hit at least one #S_400 division and some #Pantsir systems directly.
🔳 What does this mean?
The damage is comparable to the #Moskva cruiser strike and #Operation_SpiderWeb.
Secondly, it is highly likely the largest single loss #Russia has suffered in terms of air defense systems, especially #S_400s.
Conservative data from #Oryx (with visual confirmation) records 19 damaged or destroyed #S_400 launchers
over 3.5 years of the war. The real number is higher. This single strike could increase #S_400 losses by 20-30%, not counting personnel losses.
🔳 Consequences
▪️ The scale and quality of what was lost in #Novorossiysk reflects a systematic thinning of #Russian air defense/air and missile defense in the south - in #Russian-occupied #Crimea, and the occupied parts of #Kherson and #Zaporizhzhia regions - highlighting the poor state of defense in these sectors.
The #4th Guard Air and Air Defense Forces Army of the Southern Military District, responsible for the #Crimea_Rostov_North_Caucasus theater, is being specifically destroyed by #Ukrainian forces.
▪️ There is proof that #Russia’s "super-strong" air and missile defense in this strategic area cannot withstand a combined strike by the #Ukrainian Defense Forces at a depth of 430-450 km.
For some time, a hypothesis has been emerging: the increase in successful strikes on #Russian forces and targets
at medium range is due not only to improved #Ukrainian capabilities, but also to reduced density of #Russian air and missile defense in the operational rear. Some systems have been destroyed, while the rest are concentrated on protecting privileged areas in #Moscow and #St_Petersburg.
This represents a cascading set of problems for #Russia.
#ukraine #putinisamasskiller #putinisawarcriminal @kardinal691
Putin's IBS