David Ho
With current pledges, the world's on track for 2.6°C of warming in 2100 compared to preindustrial levels. 10 years ago, before the Paris agreement, it was 3.6°C 20+ years ago, we thought it would be 4-5°C So 2.6°C is better, but the problem is that climate impacts are way worse than we predicted.

World still on track for catas...
World still on track for catastrophic 2.6C temperature rise, report finds

Fossil fuel emissions have hit a record high while many nations have done too little to avert deadly global heating

The Guardian
Nov 13 at 12:55pmWeb
Show threadCount HoldemNov 13

@davidho.bsky.social This is where James Hansen has the upper hand, with more accurate data. He includes #MilankovitchCycles into the equations.

#ClimateChange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #GlobalWarming #GlobalBoiling #Sustainability #Renewables #EnergyTransition

Show threadClimateBookNov 13
Two important things to note about this welcome sign of progress: (1) Refering to Fig, 2 in the study, in the 2.6C scenario we are (apparently) tracking, the CO2 emissions in 2100 are still around 35 GtCO2 per year, and there will be additional warming during the tine it takes to get that to zero...
Show threadClimateBookNov 13
The longer it takes to get to zero from there, the more additional warming there will be. We would certainly settle at a value higher than 2.6C. (2) The pre-Paris 3.6C scenario has us emitting 70 GtCO2 per year in 2100, and not yet trending downward. That means there will be a whole lot of ....
Show threadClimateBookNov 13
... additional warming past 2100; I'd guess that the 3.6C scenario would actually have left us ultimately at a truly catastrophic 5C warming, if not more. So the improvement due to Paris (assuming we do indeed soon get on a downward global trend, which hasn't happened yet)
Show threadClimateBookNov 13
is even greater than the 2100 stats indicate. The report cited in the Guardian article is here: climateactiontracker.org/documents/13...

climateactiontracker.org/documents/1348...