Charlie StrossNov 1

Random Fermi Paradox solution of the day:

Nobody goes into space and colonizes the galaxy because only Moon Nazis want to do that, and after experiencing a few dozen genocides all sapient species learn the safest thing to do when you see a Moon Nazi is to murder them immediately, it's the only way to avoid the genocides.

Show threadPete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Nov 1

@cstross
Nobody goes into space and colonises their galaxy because it's an insane, incoherent goal with no possible return on the investment of energy and resources. Only civilisations infected by the Infinite Growth mind-virus pursue such goals, and their home planets … don't make it.

I sure hope our civilisation isn't throwing irrecoverable resources into a project that can definitely never pay for itself just to make the number go up for as long as possible.

Show threadIsaac Ji Kuo

@petealexharris @cstross I think that "colonizing" the galaxy is a reasonable goal, but the "problem" is that the rational way to go about it would take a lot longer than the age of the universe so far.

For the most part, interstellar probes can provide desired scientific exploration info about far away star systems, and these will not be very noticeable for us.

Space colonization makes most sense within a star system, with expansion to other star systems only making sense during close flybys.

Nov 1 at 6:23pmWeb
Show threadIsaac Ji KuoNov 1

@petealexharris @cstross So here's the thing. Star system flybys are not very common. As such, it's just plain going to take a really long time to expand throughout the whole galaxy.

So "the" solution to the Fermi paradox might simply be that the galaxy is young compared to how long it would plausibly take for our solar system to be colonized by another civilization.

Show threadPete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Nov 1
@isaackuo @cstross
I think it isn't a reasonable goal at all, and suspect the idea gets way too much unwarranted, unexamined acceptance because we're embedded in a culture with a distorted view of the same-planet colonisations our ancestors hailed as successes. But it's not the same thing; there are no precedents at all for it. It's a plan to burn vast resources irrevocably and bring back nothing to replace their lost value.
Show threadIsaac Ji KuoNov 1

@petealexharris @cstross We do lots of things that consume vast resources that bring nothing of value. I think it's a quintessential mistake to demand that human activity produce something "of value".

For example, a lot of people enjoy going on vacations to see ... I dunno penguins or Paris or something. Doesn't do a lick of good toward producing something "of value". So what? That shouldn't be the purpose of a human life.

Show threadCharlie StrossNov 1
@isaackuo @petealexharris Cost accounting is a disease. As a value system it's meaningless unless it can ascribe value to a haiku or a smile. There are other values than money.
Show threadHighlandLawyerNov 1
@cstross @isaackuo @petealexharris
Money is a decentralised rationing system for societies to deal with scarcity of resources.
Show threadCharlie StrossNov 1
@HighlandLawyer @isaackuo @petealexharris ... Which these days is misapplied to ration stuff that is only scarce because greed heads with too much capital have decided that money itself is a scarce commodity and they want to have it all. So stuff is monetized that shouldn't/needn't be, and we're expected to pay for it.
Show threadIsaac Ji KuoNov 2

@cstross @HighlandLawyer @petealexharris For some reason, here in the USA the language of "austerity" has not taken off. Instead, it's always couched in a sort of weird double-think language epitomized by:

"We need to take care of our own first."

"So, we take care of our own?"

"Screw 'em."

Show threadPete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Nov 1
@isaackuo @cstross
It doesn't cost ten billion dollars to visit Paris for a day. If it did, nobody would do it, even though they'd all agree, as I do, that not everything we value can be measured economically.
When we have the luxury of ignoring the opportunity cost, we can decide what outcome we prefer from our expenditure much more freely. Interstellar travel comes with a non-ignorable opportunity cost due to the scale of the problem, which we do NOT have an intuitive grasp of.
Show threadIsaac Ji KuoNov 1
@petealexharris @cstross I'm not talking about interstellar travel. I'm talking about space "colonization" within a star system. It's very expensive for us now, but may not be for aliens who start off on a slightly less massive planet, or it may not be for us in the future with more technology and infrastructure.
Show threadLarryNov 1
@isaackuo @petealexharris @cstross
I've yet to see a business plan for manned space exploration.
Show threadIsaac Ji KuoNov 1

@quoidian @petealexharris @cstross Does there need to be a business plan? What's the business plan for Fermilab?

https://history.fnal.gov/historical/people/wilson_testimony.html

Fermilab | History and Archives | People

Show threadLarryNov 1
@isaackuo @petealexharris @cstross
It's a factory for producing post-graduate degree holders in physics and related studies.
Show threadIsaac Ji KuoNov 1
@quoidian @petealexharris @cstross How is that a business plan? The level of funding required to build Fermilab was never going to be repaid by donations from alumni.
Show threadLarryNov 1
@isaackuo @petealexharris @cstross
It depends on what you value any physics PHD, potential Nobel Prizes, etc at. National scientific prestige is a form of soft-power which some bean-counter could put a monetary value on.
Show threadSteve LeachNov 1

@quoidian @isaackuo @petealexharris @cstross

Alt Text: "Two prehistoric fish like organisms peer out from the edge of a pool at an expanse of mud. One says to the other 'Even if we theoretically *could* adapt to breathing air I just don't see the business plan, what's the benefit?".

Or, perhaps: "Blessed Are Those Who Plant Trees Under Whose Shade They Will Never Sit."

Show threadSteve LeachNov 1

@quoidian @isaackuo @petealexharris @cstross

If shown conclusively that there was no other life in the galaxy, and given a choice between:

A) health. wealth, happiness, and as long a life as I want to live

&

B) 1,000 years of horrible torture and pain in exchange for enough diverse Earth microbes being seeded on warm wet sterile rocks around nearby stars to have a good chance at forming new alien ecosystems.

Sign me up for the torture.

Show threadPete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Nov 1
@stevenaleach
You do you, but don't sign anyone else up for it, OK?
Show threadSteve LeachNov 1
@isaackuo @petealexharris @cstross Yes Yes Yes. And maybe not "colonization" as we're used to thinking about it but more extremely large scale efforts at engineered panspermia: If "we" survive, a few million years in this solar system and never manage to go further ourselves but are building seed probes with microbes that we fire off at every near approaching star system or passing rogue planet until we finally go extinct... well, cool that's a worthy "purpose" for our species.
Show threadIsaac Ji KuoNov 1

@stevenaleach @petealexharris @cstross I find it interesting that you would find this a satisfying goal. I'm not saying it's anything invalid or anything, it's just "interesting" to me.

I can easily point to a direct inspiration for me - Star Trek TMP.

I am fascinated by what Pioneer 10/11 or Voyager 1/2 says about us. Rather than a microbe legacy, I find a robotic probe legacy more compelling. Robotic probes cruising through interstellar space at gravity slingshot speeds would take MILLIONS

Show threadIsaac Ji KuoNov 1

@stevenaleach @petealexharris @cstross of years to explore the galaxy. But they could be engineered with modern technology and launched at reasonable costs. And even after they have completely broken down, they will still wander the galaxy for billions and billions of years.

I find that a satisfying legacy for humanity.

Show threadSteve LeachNov 1

@isaackuo @petealexharris @cstross I can see that.

For me it's the idea of the greatest potential for experience and creation.

Our solar system will be sterile in ~10^10th yrs. Put the heat death of the universe at 10^100th yrs and accept that anything beyond the local group is being carried away too fast by expansion to ever reach ( so limited sources of life to finally reach here from further away), well just think of the potential "waste" of possible "stuff" not living and experiencing.