Jenny ChaseOct 20

Time to make 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, you might like the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website until end of Nov 2025.

It's the book I should have read before trying to get a job in renewable energy. Reviewers describe it as “to the point, important, and taught me a lot” and “surprisingly entertaining, don’t be put off by the title”.

https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0437#t=aboutBook

Show threadJenny ChaseOct 20

I have put out this thread once a year on X since 2017 and Mastodon / Bluesky since 2024. See 2024 thread below, and from there links to previous threads. So you can see what I got wrong, or at least changed.

https://mastodon.green/@solar_chase/113214911341855405

Some of these assertions will contain links to BloombergNEF content under a paywall. If you are not lucky enough to have access, you'll have to believe me that's what it says.

Also, I'm on maternity leave, so this thread is lighter on changes than in some years.

Jenny Chase (@[email protected])

Time to make 2024 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon is out. https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0437#t=aboutBook

Mastodon.green
Show threadJenny ChaseOct 20
1. To opinions! Solar is the cheapest source of bulk electricity in many countries, and the quickest to deploy, and now you couldn't stop it being built if you wanted to. The limits to PV build in most places are grid access, permitting, and sometimes installation labour.
Show threadJenny ChaseOct 20
2. 20 years ago when I got this job, I thought maybe solar would one day be 1% of global electricity supply. In 2024 it was about 7% worldwide, and rising fast. You can see this eating into fossil fuel power generation in, for example, Europe.
Show threadJenny ChaseOct 20
3. Solar will not solve every problem. But the biggest problem is that our civilisation relies on digging up fossil carbon and burning it, which is destabilising the climate, which multiplies a lot of very unpleasant threats. Solar is part of stopping us needing to do that.
Show threadJenny ChaseOct 20
4. We don’t need a solar technology breakthrough. The challenges to building solar are usually getting a grid connection and planning permission, or increasingly, power price cannibalization. Of which more later in thread.
Show threadJenny ChaseOct 20
5. Solar modules now cost 8.9 US cents per Watt (higher in US, India due to trade barriers). Solar panels are cheaper than most ordinary fencing materials. For rooftop installs, non-module cost is still $0.50-3.00 per Watt, so further module price declines make little difference.
Show threadkravietz 🦇Oct 20
@solar_chase

Thanks for this thread, loaded with useful data! A question: what do you make of the fact (IEA) that 80% of the whole PV supply chain is controlled by one country - China - and therefore the today’s PV price is a product of Chinese subsidies, forced labour and poor environmental standards?
Show threadJenny Chase

@kravietz it's largely untrue; China has not directly subsidised solar manufacturers for over a decade, the allegations of forced labour relate to a very small section of the supply chain which has a lot more to do with other industries like steel, and environmental standards in China have come a long way, as have salaries.

Basically Chinese companies have got good at making solar panels, and good solar panels are the main reason for any climate optimism.

Oct 20 at 8:50amWeb
Show threadkravietz 🦇Oct 20

@solar_chase

Yes, but the 80% control over the PV supply chain remains a fact. IEA clearly indicates this a long-term risk for any infrastructure investment. And right now, as expected, China started pursuing the existing export license mechanisms.

Regarding environmental standards, current Chinese ETS price is what - $15 - while EU ETS price is $80, which tells you all about it.