Richard Moissl, head of #ESAโs #PlanetaryDefence office, 54:00 : We have a blaringly obvious blind spot. Something like #Chelyabinsk โ๏ธ๐ฅ could happen any moment right now, we wouldn't have any prewarning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8njR4413hok
#ESA : "The main challenge stems from the population of middle-size objects, ranging from tens to hundreds of metres in diameter ๐. There are a lot of these #asteroids โ๏ธ, and most have not been spotted๐ญ yet" ๐ https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2018/06/Asteroid_danger_explained
Short: still to be spotted >70% (the ones > 100m)
While taking images of the distant #universe, @VRubinObs also discovered 2,104 #asteroids โ๏ธ flitting about in our own solar systemโincluding seven whose orbits hew close to Earthโs own https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/06/23/1119129/first-images-vera-c-rubin-observatory
According to #NASA, space rocks โ๏ธ measuring about one to 20 metres across collided with Earthโs atmosphere resulting in fireballs ๐ฅ 556 times over 20 years. #Chelyabinsk is the best example. The types of #asteroids we should perhaps be most concerned about are those about 140 metres ๐ across https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jun/28/its-something-that-happens-are-we-doing-enough-to-save-earth-from-a-devastating-asteroid-strike
๐ August 8, 2025 #'Meteorite โ๏ธ fragments struck a man's roof like a bullet and left a dent in the floor of the home outside #Atlanta https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/fiery-meteor-punched-georgia-homes-roof-older-earth-124493520
โThis is something that used to be expected once every few decades and not multiple times within 20 yearsโ. Multiple fragments of that #meteorite โ๏ธ punched through the roof of a home just south of #Atlanta, dented laminate flooring and missed the man living there by 14 feet ๐ https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/11/science/meteor-georgia-older-than-earth.html
โTo be able to hear ๐ the sonic boom loudly from the ground suggests that quite a big chunk of the #meteor was pretty close to the ground. And that possibly means thereโs chunks of the #meteorite โ๏ธ that actually made it down to the ground" https://www.independent.co.uk/space/meteor-explosion-sonic-boom-australia-houses-b2805229.html
When comparing the likelihood of #asteroid โ๏ธevents to other possible events, some of the results might be surprising. For example, the chance of a >140 meter asteroid hitting ๐ฅ Earth is more likely than an individual being struck by #lightning โก in their lifetime https://phys.org/news/2025-08-lifetime-odds-dying-asteroid-impact.html
Most people are aware that an asteroid wiped out much of life on Earth around 65 million years ago, and this knowledge contributes to that chill of fear that many people experience, at least occasionally, that something like this could happen again. The science is clear that it could happen again, but how likely is it to happen in the average person's lifetime?
๐ #Asteroids โ๏ธ which came closer to Earth than the #Moon ๐ in 2025 by time of discovery ๐ญ
โข After closest approach: 94 (49.7%)
โข < 24 hours before: 36 (19.0%)
โข up to 7 days before: 57 (30.2%)
โข > one week before: 2 (1.1%)
โข > 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)
โข > one year before: 0 (0.0%)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_asteroid_close_approaches_to_Earth_in_2025
Asteroid 2025 TF zipped past Earth above Antarctica, coming within 428 km of the surface. Roughly the size of a small car, it was detected hours after the flyby and posed no danger. ESA astronomers later confirmed its trajectory with extraordinary accuracy.
#2025SC79 is the second-fastest #asteroid โ๏ธ, roughly 700 meters long, spotted on Sept. 27 hiding in the sun's โ๏ธ glare. "The most #dangerous asteroids are the most difficult to detect" ๐ญ https://www.space.com/astronomy/asteroids/astronomers-discover-2nd-fastest-asteroid-in-the-solar-system-hiding-in-the-suns-glare
Between 140 meters and 1 km : 10,624 #asteroids โ๏ธ discovered ๐ญ https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/over-33000-near-earth-asteroids-have-been-detected-since-1990
14:43 - The #Torino scale explained "10 is a really bad day for the #dinosaurs" ๐ฆ (including a really nice #Trump #parody ๐) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK3tW1E615Y
#Asteroid #2017SH33 โ๏ธ was last observed ๐ญ in 2017 https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2017%20SH33 and estimated 700m-1.6 km in diameter https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list. It might impact ๐ฅ 2026-04-30 (but we haven't a clue as there isn't any recent data)
โYou can only do something to address a threat if you know about it,โ Moissl says. โSo the very first step in the whole chain is observations ๐ญ. You need to find the #asteroids.โ https://www.sciencefocus.com/space/asteroids-team-saving-earth
"If necessary, we can build a spacecraft to deflect an #asteroid โ๏ธ in four years" โณ๐ฅฑ https://www.mundoamerica.com/entertainment/2025/02/24/67bc4638fc6c83360e8b4591.html
@snap2grid it should miss by 0.2 AU https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=summary&des=2017SH33, based on the 2017 data https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=obs&des=2017SH33. I wonder why it isn't tracked (~1km wide, just 4 weeks away according to the "Risk List" https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list). The simulation https://neotools.neo.s2p.esa.int/ovt?object=2017SH33 shows indeed something very different ๐ค
MOID = the distance between the closest points of the osculating orbits of two bodies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_orbit_intersection_distance
Spaceflight ๐
Steve Hammondโ๏ธ ๐๐ญ๐น ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ
Curious