Edward Teller is mainly famous as the "father of the hydrogen bomb". But he wasn't dumb. He was invited to speak in 1959 at a big party in New York for the 100th birthday of the oil industry - a party put on by the American Petroleum Institute. Over 300 government officials, economists, historians, scientists, and industry executives were there.

And this is what he said:

‘”Whenever you burn conventional fuel, you create carbon dioxide.... The carbon dioxide is invisible, it is transparent, you can’t smell it, it is not dangerous to health, so why should one worry about it?"

“Carbon dioxide has a strange property. It transmits visible light but it absorbs the infrared radiation which is emitted from the earth. Its presence in the atmosphere causes a greenhouse effect …. a temperature rise …. sufficient to melt the icecaps and submerge New York. All the coastal cities would be covered, and since a considerable percentage of the human race lives in coastal regions, I think that this chemical contamination is more serious than most people tend to believe.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/01/on-its-hundredth-birthday-in-1959-edward-teller-warned-the-oil-industry-about-global-warming

On its 100th birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming

Benjamin Franta: Somebody cut the cake – new documents reveal that American oil writ large was warned of global warming at its 100th birthday party.

The Guardian

@johncarlosbaez and didn't he suggest to explode a dirty hydrogen bomb to make the sky opaque?

In grad school we had a saying "You've got a problem, Eddy got the bomb for it.".

But yes he definitely wasn't stupid, he was a student of Wheeler, just not a very nice person, cf Oppenheimer

@johncarlosbaez

On the business side, reinsurance companies were trailblazers.

They started tracking the problem in 1970's, they were convinced in the 1990s. They were ahead of IPCC until the 4th report in 2007 vindicated them.

https://mathstodon.xyz/@maxpool/114823060856129526

ma𝕏pool (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image Climate Change - Reinsurance companies have a skin in the game. 1929: “... we wonder whether the deeper causes are not to be sought in certain climatic changes, which make the present tariff rates based on an earlier experience appear inadequate” 1973: Swiss Re mentions CO2 increase as potential risk. 1974: cyclone Tracy damage in Australia prompted creation of geo-risk units dedicated to the geosciences. 1989: "Munich Re’s board decided that beginning in the summer of 1990 they should make a concerted effort to counter the widely held opinion that the climate changes and natural catastrophe events still move within “the statistical corridor,” for “this conviction is no longer acceptable” 1990s forward: Reinsurance companies became frustrated with IPCC's cautiousness. "When the IPCC came out more strongly in their stance on the root causes of climate change in their fourth report, reinsurers, unsurprisingly, felt vindicated." Source:Bookkeepers of catastrophes: The overlooked role of reinsurers in climate change debates https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378024001353 #climatechange #insurance #economics #climate

Mathstodon
@johncarlosbaez To call the absorption spectrum of a molecule a „strange property“ is a strange wording coming from a scientist.
@ahm42 @johncarlosbaez He's talking to businessmen, so he has to dumb it down a bit.
@ahm42 @johncarlosbaez It seems a doubly strange wording. AIUI most molecules have IR spectral lines--nearly everything except noble gases and diatomic molecules like N2 and O2 that don't have internal rotational excitation modes.
@dan131riley @ahm42 - I read the word "strange" as a bit of humor, with Teller talking to people who don't know anything about physics, telling them about something that seems weird until you learn more.
@johncarlosbaez @dan131riley @ahm42 And English was his second language, so it wouldn't be, uh, strange for him to pick not-quite-the-best-word, especially extemporaneously.

@johncarlosbaez I’d guess this was during Teller’s reputation-washing with Atoms for Peace?

He was quite happy to get Gulf to spend DOE money on ‘stimulating’ gas wells with small nukes, which was a counterproductive farce.

I’d suppose the rest of his speech would be on faster adoption of civil nuclear at the behest of his friends in the Navy.

@johncarlosbaez Well, 67 years later none of that has happened, so I'd wager a guess that his prediction was a bit off.
@bontchev @johncarlosbaez Is that sarcasm? You left off the /s tag. Do you really want to wait for the greenland and antarctic ice shelves to melt?

@ariaflame @johncarlosbaez It's a safe bet to assume that most of the stuff I say is sarcastic. I don't use "/s" tags.

I really hope that Greenland doesn't melt, because that would mean an ice age in Europe, where I happen to live.

@bontchev - he didn't give a timeline, and his prediction seems spot on. The polar ice caps and Greenland are melting, and sea levels are rising.

But maybe Teller didn't realize that changing weather patterns will hit us sooner.

https://www.germanwatch.org/en/blog/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-tipping-point-risk-millions-coastal-regions

West Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping point: a risk for millions in coastal regions

In the last blog post of our tipping points series, we take a look at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). It is a portion of the continental ice sheet on Antarctica and acts as a gigantic water storage, keeping sea levels static and coastlines intact. A collapse of the entire ice sheet would result in a global mean sea level rise of approximately 3.3 metres, and in the flooding of coastal areas and cities where hundreds of millions of people live. We will discuss the nature of the WAIS, and the effects its collapse will have on global sea level rise, and the socio-economic and human impacts.

@johncarlosbaez Speaking of the Antarctic,

"Extreme Antarctic Cold of Late Winter 2023":

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-4139-1

Or, for instance,

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/386894892_Variability_of_sea_ice_concentration_over_Antarctica_during_recent_decade

"The study reveals that there is an increasing annual as well as seasonal trend of sea ice concentration for the period 1979–2022."

So, I guess his prediction will continue being off the spot for a while longer...

Extreme Antarctic Cold of Late Winter 2023 - Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

Extreme cold temperatures were observed in July and August 2023, coinciding with the WINFLY (winter fly-in) period of mid to late August into September 2023, meaning aircraft operations into McMurdo Station and Phoenix Airfield were adversely impacted. Specifically, with temperatures below −50°C, safe flight operation was not possible because of the risk of failing hydraulics and fuel turning to gel onboard the aircraft. The cold temperatures were measured across a broad area of the Antarctic, from East Antarctica toward the Ross Ice Shelf, and stretching across West Antarctica to the Antarctic Peninsula. A review of automatic weather station measurements and staffed station observations revealed a series of sites recording new record low temperatures. Four separate cold phases were identified, each a few days in duration and occurring from mid-July to the end of August 2023. A brief analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies shows how the mid-tropospheric atmospheric environment evolves in relation to these extreme cold temperatures. The monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies show strong negative anomalies in August. Examination of composite geopotential height anomalies during each of the four cold phases suggests various factors leading to cold temperatures, including both southerly off-content flow and calm atmospheric conditions. Understanding the atmospheric environment that leads to such extreme cold temperatures can improve prediction of such events and benefit Antarctic operations and the study of Antarctic meteorology and climatology.

SpringerLink

@bontchev

"Antarctic sea ice area increased over the period of reliable satellite records starting in 1979, resulting in record high anomalies in 2014 and 2015 (Parkinson 2019; Parkinson and DiGirolamo 2021). That four-decade increase ended abruptly and unexpectedly with sustained low sea ice cover in the years since, and three extreme ice loss events in the past seven summers, occurring in 2016, 2022, and 2023 (Turner et al. 2017; Parkinson 2019; Parkinson and DiGirolamo 2021; Raphael and Handcock 2022; Wang et al. 2022; Liu et al. 2023). Summer extremes were punctuated in the 2023 austral winter by a remarkably low winter sea ice growth, leading to a winter maximum that was 1 million km2 below the previous low record. These recent events, with record highs followed by record lows (Fig. 1) has led to suggestions that the Antarctic ocean–sea ice system may have fundamentally changed in the last decade or so (Eayrs et al. 2021; Raphael and Handcock 2022; Purich and Doddridge 2023). In this study, we explore the evidence for that hypothesis."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/7/JCLI-D-23-0479.1.xml

@johncarlosbaez "For every Ph.D., there is an equivalent and opposite Ph.D."

@bontchev - No, you have to read lots of papers to figure out what's going on, and scientists keep learning more. The paper you pointed out, which says

""The study reveals that there is an increasing annual as well as seasonal trend of sea ice concentration for the period 1979–2022."

also says

"In recent decades, the SIC (sea ice concentration) has varied significantly and seen an overall increase until undergoing a sudden decline over the last several years (Parkinson and Cavalieri 2012; Maksym 2019; Earys et al. 2021; Simpkins 2023), strongly influenced by the warming trend in surface temperature (Comiso et al. 2017). Due to this, freshwater enters the oceans as the Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves melt. Since 1993, the average global rise in sea level has been driven by meltwater from these ice sheets, which accounts for approximately one-third of the rise."

So, we'd have to read it more carefully to really understand what they're really claiming, instead of just cherry-picking a quote here and there.

@johncarlosbaez Ah, yes, and what happened after 2019-2021 when these papers were published?

"Antarctica’s Astonishing Rebound: Ice Sheet Grows for the First Time in Decades":

https://scitechdaily.com/antarcticas-astonishing-rebound-ice-sheet-grows-for-the-first-time-in-decades/

@johncarlosbaez Another view:

"A local bright spot among melting glaciers: 2,000 km of Antarctic ice-covered coastline has been stable for 85 years":

https://phys.org/news/2024-05-local-bright-glaciers-km-antarctic.html

OK, OK, I get it. Antarctic ice has either been melting, or increasing, or being stable, or something. Science!

A local bright spot among melting glaciers: 2,000 km of Antarctic ice-covered coastline has been stable for 85 years

A whaler's forgotten aerial photos from 1937 have given researchers at the University of Copenhagen the most detailed picture of the ice evolution in East Antarctica to date. The results show that the ice has remained stable and even grown slightly over almost a century, though scientists observe early signs of weakening. The research offers new insights that enhance predictions of ice changes and sea level rise.

Phys.org
@johncarlosbaez ...no wonder Plants love it....go green ! 💚

@johncarlosbaez 1959?! That's earlier than I would have guessed.

Makes the rumours of Big Oil exchanging memos amongst themselves, on the quiet, seem more believable than ever.

Previously, my earliest reference was my big brother coming home from school in the 1970s casually dropping in "we'll have to find something new to do in the next decade or two, before things get bad". His physics teacher had been doing the sums even then.

But it's always been true that there will come a time the planet can't support our growing demands forever. The only questions have been 'When?' and 'How bad?'.

@johncarlosbaez

We knew cabin emissions are bad since 1930s

"We" chose not to do anything because greed and fuck our descendants.