You might have heard it mentioned that the #CBO assessment of the #BBB was a net -$2.4T to the federal debt.
That's less than the $4-6T projected over the decade, right?
That's because it excluded interest costs from the addnl debt and counting on certain provisions expiring halfway through the decade.
Under ordinary circumstances, those provisions would have otherwise resulted in a net -$4.3T effect on the debt over the decade, and -$5.3T taking interest into account. Still -$4-6T. #USPol
There are many provisions that have been rejected by the Senate's parliamentarian, based on the Byrd Rule. Are they enough to throw the whole #BBB into limbo? With only 3 months left to go in FY2025, they're basically trying to rewrite laws and include rescissions to legalize the DOGE cuts.
They could drop it and let the existing FY2025 CR to continue, but they would have to still pass a debt ceiling increase, at which point, there is no BBB and no leverage.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/24/upshot/reconciliation-byrd-bath.html
The short of it all:
- The #BBB is running up against the #ByrdRule, making the debt increase higher if they still manage to pass it.
- They have until the end of the FY2025 to pass it (Sept 30).
- Until then, the federal budget runs under the Continuing Resolution that funded the gov't through Sept 30.
- They still need to increase the debt ceiling.
- If the bill is not passed and therefore the debt ceiling not increased, all leverage goes back to Democrats, aka Chuck Schumer.
Spin D'Accord