It's a bit surreal to be in this #LPS25 panel discussion about the future of small sats and constellations, and no one talks at all about the fact that LEO is already on the way to runaway debris at the present number of space objects. http://www.researchgate.net/publication/391093502_CRITICAL_NUMBER_OF_SPACECRAFT_IN_LOW_EARTH_ORBIT_A_NEW_ASSESSMENT_OF_THE_STABILITY_OF_THE_ORBITAL_DEBRIS_ENVIRONMENT
@knud Thanks for sharing that! I agree with the 😬, it's astounding the extent to which people in EO simply do not talk about this.

@skyglowberlin

I also wasn't aware of this. To be honest, it was good reading (skimming) this article because I had a wrong picture in my mind for "Kessler Syndrome". I thought it was more like the Hollywood ("Gravity") version than a slow but irreversible filling of certain orbits with more and more debris, which at some point would could/will start destroying sats in these simply by the impossibility of avoiding all debris.

I have to think about this. "My" sat luckily is at L2...

@knud No, it's a gradual thing. From what I understand, collisions are expected to start within about a decade. Starlink's maneuvering buys some time, but due to satellite failures and unpredictable drag events during solar outbursts, collisions are literally inevitable.

@planet4589.bsky.social also said on a panel discussion that he's increasingly seeing events in which trackable debris is appearing from a satellite which wasn't incapacitated. So presumably something quite small has hit it and knocked off bits that were big enough to track, but not big enough to destroy the satellite.

If you're interested in the topic, you'll also want to follow @sundogplanets and @ProfHughLewis