#KesslerSyndrom intensifies... 😬
Here's the link to the actual conference PDF:
https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305/SDC9-paper305.pdf
I also wasn't aware of this. To be honest, it was good reading (skimming) this article because I had a wrong picture in my mind for "Kessler Syndrome". I thought it was more like the Hollywood ("Gravity") version than a slow but irreversible filling of certain orbits with more and more debris, which at some point would could/will start destroying sats in these simply by the impossibility of avoiding all debris.
I have to think about this. "My" sat luckily is at L2...
@knud No, it's a gradual thing. From what I understand, collisions are expected to start within about a decade. Starlink's maneuvering buys some time, but due to satellite failures and unpredictable drag events during solar outbursts, collisions are literally inevitable.
@planet4589.bsky.social also said on a panel discussion that he's increasingly seeing events in which trackable debris is appearing from a satellite which wasn't incapacitated. So presumably something quite small has hit it and knocked off bits that were big enough to track, but not big enough to destroy the satellite.
If you're interested in the topic, you'll also want to follow @sundogplanets and @ProfHughLewis
@skyglowberlin @planet4589.bsky.social @sundogplanets @ProfHughLewis
I was already following half of them. Now all :-)
@skyglowberlin huh, I did not know that higher orbits (in this range) support fewer objects.
Did you try to bring up this critical question in the panel (I find you can usually tell a lot by people’s reaction to unexpected questions)?
And, would you be okay with being provided an alt-text for this image?
@crypticcelery Objects in low orbits decay quickly (at 500 km within a few years). This is even more true for debris. Once you get to the higher altitudes, the satellites will stay in orbit for hundreds or even thousands of years. So the problem is not the volume (which grows with r^3), but rather the lifetime. If you leave too much stuff up there, it will be circling the Earth for so long that collisions are inevitable.
@crypticcelery I brought up the question at a mainly industry event a few months ago, and a bunch of people chuckled. It seems the industry isn't going to take it seriously until collisions start happening.
This event didn't have an opportunity for audience questions, and I added alt text.
@[email protected] Objects in low orbits decay quickly (at 500 km within a few years). This is even more true for debris. Once you get to the higher altitudes, the satellites will stay in orbit for hundreds or even thousands of years. So the problem is not the volume (which grows with r^3), but rather the lifetime. If you leave too much stuff up there, it will be circling the Earth for so long that collisions are inevitable. #KesslerSyndrome #SpaceJunk #SpacePollution
Christopher Kyba 🇨🇦🇪🇺
Knud Jahnke
Sören Meyer-Eppler
crypticcelery
gnarf