@davidgerard I've got to take exception to one statement you make:

AI is the last game in the casino.

It may be the last game of which we're presently aware. But I'm reasonably certain another grift will come along.

That's a minor nit, and this is good analysis.

NB: WNYC's On the Media interviewed Ed Zitron this past January. He makes a similar case to yours:

Silicon Valley over the years has leaned towards just growth ideas. What will grow, what can we sell more of? Except, they've chased out all the real innovators. To your original question, they didn't know what they were going to do. They thought that ChatGPT would magically become profitable. When that didn't work, they went, "Well, what if we made it more powerful and bigger? We can get more funding that way," so they did that.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/articles/brooke-talks-ai-with-ed-zitron (transcript available).

@peter

#PivotToAI #ai #EdZitron #OnTheMedia #DavidGerard

Brooke Talks AI With Ed Zitron | On the Media | WNYC Studios

How DeepSeek threatens to burst the American tech AI bubble. 

WNYC Studios

@dredmorbius @peter philosophically there might be and they're not gonna stop trying, but they've tried and failed hard on several lately

latest is they're trying to trot out "biotech" yet again, which was the go to in several previous failed bubbles

i'm extremely not the first person to point out that they're running out of hot bubble prospects

@davidgerard Again, I'm in agreement that they're looking more than a little fume-y at the moment.

But if there's one thing grifter's'll keep doing, it's grifting.

And regardless of your own ranking in the pointing-it-out queue, you're making the point and making it well. (A bit more clearly than Zitron did, FWIW. I just happened to re-listen to that episode in the past day or so and his line struck me as close to yours.)

@peter

@davidgerard Oh, and just to beat the horse deader: I'm not someone who points at others with similar ideas to say "nyah nyah, you're late / derivative / unoriginal".

My intent is to say "here's someone who seems to agree with you, that's possibly validating, and (presuming you're not already aware of them) you might find some other useful bits there".

I've maybe come up with a half-dozen or so Possibly Original Thoughts in my life. Most of the time it's a question of how far behind the frontier I am. In general, if I'm withing 25--50 years, I consider it a Reasonably Good Day. It suggests I'm near that border, am on somewhat trodden ground, and am possibly Not Completely Out To Lunch (depending on how well-founded the earlier explorers have been).

All a long way of saying I appreciate your work.

@peter