Francisca Sinn

“No #democracy movement has ever failed when it was able to mobilize at least 3.5 % of the population to #protest over a sustained period At that scale, most soldiers have no desire to suppress protesters. Why? Because the crowd includes family members, friends, coworkers, and neighbors. With a population of 327 million, the U.S. would need to mobilize about 11.5 million people to assert popular, democratic power on the government.”

3.5%

https://bigthink.com/the-present/the-3-5-percent-solution/

HT https://bsky.app/profile/im-mark-aylward.bsky.social/post/3lkcmoxgozc2n

To overthrow a tyrant, try the 3.5 Percent Solution

A study of 323 uprisings against repressive regimes yields stunning insights.

Big Think
Mar 14, 2025 at 4:10amWeb
Show threadÁlvaro HerreraMar 14, 2025
@fsinn Actually, they did fail in #Chile during the 2019 protests. They mobilized a lot more than 3.5% of the country population, and after several years, they (we) are all back in the same situation. Nothing has changed.
Show thread(Niko Komin) has movedMar 14, 2025
@alvherre @fsinn I don't know much about those protests but the article insists to "keep their protests nonviolent." Could that have been one of the reasons?
To maintain nonviolence might be difficult when the authorities escalate, but the East German revolution was completely nonviolent from the protestors side.
Show threadÁlvaro HerreraMar 14, 2025

@kokemikal @fsinn I don't think the problem can be attributed to protest violence. It's an interesting story of a politics failure, where the progressive movement was given executive power and was unable to wield it sensibly. (They're still in government, but haven't made any inroads into their agenda.)

A constitutional process was set in motion, but it was defeated by its own triumphalism. Very sad times, though not as sad as US currently.

Show threadSpinnerMar 20, 2025

@fsinn

It's true. About 20 million Americans marched during the BLM protests after George Floyd's murder, and Chauvin was convicted. Who's ready for some good old fashioned civil disobedience?

Show threadSearingTruthApr 8, 2025

@fsinn

"Perhaps humanity will once again be saved.

By a few small voices."
SearingTruth

Show threadoldguycrustyNov 21

@fsinn

#ThreePointFive

Show threadJustbeepJan 20
@fsinn
Not sure whether that's still fully correct as "the game" is constantly changing: https://www.alieward.com/ologies/revolutionology
Revolutionology (REBELLIONS & SOCIAL CHANGE) with Dr. Jack Goldstone — alie ward

Storming the Bastille. Facing off with tanks. Canceling a streaming subscription.  We’re talking protests, boycotts, insurrections, and demonstrations. Scholar, professor, and actual real life Revolutionologist Dr. Jack Goldstone lays out the whys – and the hows. What revolts have been the

alie ward
Show threadFrancisca SinnJan 20
@Justbeep Thanks! The other article is only a year old but I welcome additional information and insights. Looking forward to listening.