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bs2 Feb 2, 2025

> Bertrand Russell has this great quote, “This is one of those views which are so absurd that only very learned men could possibly adopt them.” On the other hand, there’s this from George Orwell: “To see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle.”
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/06/25/another-regression-discontinuity-disaster-and/
#StatisticsClass #AndrewGelman #BertrandRussel #GeorgeOrwell

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bsmall2

> 2011: Joseph Simmons, Leif Nelson, and Uri Simonsohn publish a paper, “False-positive psychology,” in Psychological Science introducing the useful term “researcher degrees of freedom.” Later they come up with the term p-hacking, and Eric Loken and I speak of the garden of forking paths to describe the processes by which researcher degrees of freedom are employed to attain statistical significance.
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/09/21/what-has-happened-down-here-is-the-winds-have-changed/
#PHacking #DegreesOfFreedom
@bsmall2

What has happened down here is the winds have changed « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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bsmall2 Feb 2, 2025

🧵
> 2011: #DarylBem publishes his article, “Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect,” in a top journal in psychology... who kicked us all into the realization that bad work could be the rule, not the exception... the deadly combination of weak theory being supported almost entirely by statistically significant results which themselves are the product of uncontrolled researcher degrees of freedom...
@bsmall2 @bsmall2
#AndrewGelman