Oh no the Chinese are doing the useless thing that gives wrong answers cheaper

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/27/tech/deepseek-stocks-ai-china/index.html

A shocking Chinese AI advancement called DeepSeek is sending US stocks plunging

US stocks dropped sharply Monday — and chipmaker Nvidia lost nearly $600 billion in market value — after a surprise advancement from a Chinese artificial intelligence company, DeepSeek, threatened the aura of invincibility surrounding America’s technology industry.

CNN
@scalzi enjoying watching the Tech Bros panic because I don't use this shit, don't need this shit and can't wait for this shit to be gone like those stupid Monkey Pictures.

@Lazarou @scalzi "stupid Monkey pictures" - how did they ever catch on? Because #suckers fall for the #grifters line about free money *every time*.

Ever read https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/403452.The_Big_Con ? Certainly worth a look. Otherwise see @molly0xfff

#crypto #ponzi #thebigcon #TheCryptoKid

The Big Con: The Story of the Confidence Man

The classic 1940 study of con men and con games that Lu…

Goodreads
@Lazarou Same AI has it's place but they're selling it as a miracle cure all.
Rev. Roger BW 😷 (@[email protected])

@[email protected] Oh, no, the fake price of their bullshit generator is lower than the fake price of our bullshit generator.

discordian.social

@scalzi who could have foreseen that this would happen? :O

(that said, the way it rains on the parade of an assortment of shitty people is a delight of above-average size)

@scalzi They already did this to caviar and Batteries!
This is the Evil power of communism!
@Zeugs @scalzi
Hang on, caviar?? I missed thatone.
@echanda @scalzi
Let me Google that for you:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/12/24/rising-tide-of-chinese-caviar-destabilizing-markets_6373320_19.html
#paywall but the tone in the stub and the headline should be enough said about these dark powers.
'The rising tide of Chinese caviar is destabilizing markets'

China is the leading producer of the precious sturgeon eggs, leaving Italy and France far behind. Today, caviar is coming from everywhere except Russia, explains Le Monde's Laurence Girard.

Le Monde
@scalzi cheaper faster wronger pick two
@darwinwoodka @scalzi a quick look at their benchmarks shows that it's /not/ wronger though, which is why i guess it's freaking the americans out

@pierrotechnique
> a quick look at their benchmarks shows that it's /not/ wronger though

And of course it wouldn't be like Chinese researchers, engaged in a high-profile techne arms race with their US counterparts, to carefully pick the benchmarks to produce the appearance of less wrongness ...

@darwinwoodka @scalzi

@strypey

1) researchers all over the world do exactly this all the time, no matter the field
2) i'm not an expert in LLMs but their list of benchmarks looked quite comprehensive

so yeah, not quite sure why that casual racism was necessary

@pierrotechnique
> researchers all over the world do exactly this all the time, no matter the field

That's a strong claim. You're going to need to back it up with specifics and evidence.

> not quite sure why that casual racism was necessary

It's not racist to reference the well-established fact that the CCP value status over accuracy, and researchers under their rule regularly submit fiction to academic journals. It would be racist to say they do it because they're Han. I'm not saying that.

@strypey it's not a strong claim lol it's a "well-established fact" as you say. we all choose to evaluate our work with metrics that support our results.

yeah i've seen shitty work from chinese researchers but i've also seen super interesting stuff. in fact i'd say about the same shit to cool stuff ratio as i've seen out of american or european or any other researchers.

painting all chinese research in such a broad stroke is definitely kind of on the edge of racism imo

@pierrotechnique
> we all choose to evaluate our work with metrics that support our results

Speak for yourself. Actual scientists seek to prove the null hypothesis, specifically to avoid fooling themselves that way.

> painting all chinese research in such a broad stroke is

... stating facts. This is a well-documented problem with the Chinese research system;

"Elite researchers in China say they had ‘no choice’ but to commit misconduct"

#SmritiMallapaty, 2024

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-01697-y

Elite researchers in China say they had ‘no choice’ but to commit misconduct

Anonymous interviewees say they engaged in unethical behaviour to protect their jobs — although others say study presents an overly negative view.

@strypey no true scotsman publishes without having proven the null hypothesis!

@pierrotechnique
> no true scotsman publishes without having proven the null hypothesis!

All I see here is loud noise, made by bashing on empty arguments. If you have a serious point to make, feel free to get to it.

@scalzi Imagine if capitalists used trillions of dollars to do something useful instead.

> Sam Altman CEO of OpenAI, last year said the AI industry would need trillions of dollars in investment to support the development of in-demand chips needed to power the electricity-hungry data centers that run the sector’s complex models.

@josephdickson @scalzi

Or 6 million if you use the optimised chinese code for AIs.

@josephdickson
> AI industry would need trillions of dollars in investment to support the development of in-demand chips needed to power the electricity-hungry data centers that run the sector’s complex models

And here we see the little people inside the Mechanical Turks. The whole "AI" thing is a way of artificially generating huge demand for something the DataFarmers want to build anyway; hyperscale datacentres;

https://techwontsave.us/episode/241_data_vampires_going_hyperscale_episode_1

It's the digital equivalent of corn ethanol.

@scalzi

Data Vampires: Going Hyperscale (Episode 1) - Tech Won’t Save Us

Tech Won't Save Us
@scalzi if one is going to have nasty, then it might as well be cheap and nasty.

@scalzi What's hilarious is that it's about 1300 lines of code using pytorch, and the "novel" solution is to train a model on LLM generated data. And the market is like "oh no!"

Scammy turtles all the way down.

@scalzi good, let the U.S. AI companies sink.

And then when the people realize the Chinese one is just as crap, it'll sink too.

@scalzi And apparently its training/alignment/whaddayacallit is unsurprisingly biased towards Chinese state's sensibilities, showing in its responses to questions about the Tiananmen protest or the Uighur minority.
Not that I believe generative AI developed in the US is less biased - it's probably just harder for us to see.
https://mezha.media/en/2025/01/24/the-chinese-ai-model-deepseek-r1-is-as-good-as-openai-o1-if-you-don-t-ask-it-about-tiananmen-square/
@scalzi The thing that isn't worth shit, and they're doing it for free? How dare they!
@scalzi Well at least in their case we can be pretty sure they'll be biased toward being usefully wrong (at least for a Chinese agenda). 😆
@scalzi
Schadenfreude - it's not my favorite happy emotion but it's the one I've got most these days.

@scalzi

The company said it had spent just $5.6 million on computing power for its base model, compared with the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars US companies spend on their AI technologies. if true (and i'm skeptical because 1. i don't trust anything a corpo says and 2. i don't trust CNN to actually interpret the facts correctly) that makes it look especially stupid for US big tech to have thrown insane amounts of money and computing power at the problem while destroying the quality of their products

@jiub

I'm also extremely skeptical that this is true but am totally delighted those able to crash certain conpanies' values took the claims seriously.

@scalzi

@scalzi

Looking forward to them rolling out the next release of R1 Deepseek - R2D2

@scalzi Who's gonna them ...
@scalzi yeah! how many billions are burnt for chatgpt ?? 🤣

@scalzi It's interesting IMO because:
- You can run the smallest model on a Ras Pi with no internet connection.
- It prints its "train of thought".
- The models are all open source.

I have no love of China, or of how the tech industry has watered machine learning down to "everything is a shitty chatbot", but I can't deny that this is an impressive breakthrough and I hope it's enough to help drive real innovation in ML.

On the other hand, I also realize this is probably going to buoy the grift even longer.

@faoluin
> You can run the smallest model on a Ras Pi with no internet connection

That is interesting. But I've seen a smaller Llama model run on a MacBook with no net connection. I'm still not convinced that makes it anything beyond a vaguely amusing waste of resources.

> The models are all open source

Including the weights and the data they're generated from?

@scalzi

@strypey @scalzi 1) As I tried to articulate in my post, I think most LLMs today are just parlor tricks, not very useful. I'd like to see more specialized ML tools.
2) I haven't gotten that far yet. I agree that would be preferable.

@faoluin
> [weights and the data being freely licensed] would be preferable

As a number of software freedom activists have pointed out, these are just as necessary to recreate the model as its source code. So it's not just preferable, it's a prerequisite for saying with accuracy that ...

> The models are all open source

@scalzi

@strypey @scalzi If I were king of the world then yeah that would be the case. I'm sorry, but I'm not going to waste time on pedantics on this topic.

@faoluin
> I'm not going to waste time on pedantics on this topic

You specified that the models are "open source" is if it matters. Now you're arguing that distinguishing actual Open Source from openwashing is "pedantics". Not sure how you square that circle.

@scalzi just wait until I release my new model that can produce wrong answers instantly and at zero cost!

@scalzi I can already do cheaper, faster and wronger generative AI!

cat /dev/urandom

joene 🏴🍉 (@[email protected])

Attached: 4 images #Deepseek is absolutely the new tankie toy! Congratulations to all #China adoring #tankies! :tankies: Don't get me wrong, the American #AI's are also lying and making mistakes. But I have to admit that #ChatGPT is not so obvious lying as Deepseek. Although that can change. 👀 Imagine a future were AI tools from various power blocks are fighting each-other who is the greatest historical revisionist. All that lying costs of course immense energy, making the climate crisis a climate apocalypse, and destroying all human culture and knowledge. All for who has the best lie. OK, the former paragraph is more of a good science fiction film. But good science fiction films have a grain of truth. Proposed title 'The War of the Lies'. * * This splendid scifi film idea is licenced under the Creative Command licence BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Todon.nl
@scalzi Apparently the “AI breakthrough” they have demonstrated is the ability to generate superior download statistics from the App Store. This makes a lot of sense to me. #aiwinter
@scalzi FFS. It's not an advancement. It's just a _claim_ of an advancement. I wish that the optimism I had as a child about the future could be reasonably sustained now that I am approaching retirement....
@brainwagon @scalzi I think it's very telling that even though everybody knows they might be lying, it still tanks the stock price.
@TomF @scalzi It basically is calling calling out the Emperor's clothes.
@scalzi so china did what china does—it made a knock off version of a thing at a lower price point than the other guy…

@skoombidoombis @scalzi

Time will tell, but they do seem to have produced a better mousetrap as well.

Competition is a bitch. Too bad the free market fundamentalist spent the last 40 years stamping out any with that pesky competition.

Because free market fundamentalist actually argue that monopoly is fine.

The marketplace doesn't need actual competitors competing in it in order to be free market.

🧵

@scalzi gawd forbid the creators solve the problems themselves – obviously 🙄. University education is starting to seem cheep these days.

@scalzi

"It hasn’t yet proven it can handle some of the massively ambitious AI capabilities for industries that – for now – still require tremendous infrastructure investments. "

neither has ChatGPT lol

@scalzi I have a really hard time getting worked up over it
@scalzi I petition to rename investment bubbles to boils - because in my experience they are bloody,sticky situations.
@scalzi Kakistocracy, Kleptocracy or Kapitalism Americans pick your poison.😈