Katerina MarchánDec 17, 2024

One of the hot technologies preceding one of the several “AI Winters” we’ve seen since software was even a thing was called Expert Systems. And they were hot for well over a decade!

…but as the hype started cooling and people looked at the cost/benefit analysis and the real capabilities of such a system in the long term, the whole house of cards came crashing down. Below is the summary the Wikipedia page gives on why they failed. Look familiar?

Show threadKaterina MarchánDec 17, 2024

What I’m getting at is that it doesn’t really matter if LLMs improve the quality of their results to match a novice human worker.

When you remove the subsidies from incredibly rich investors and the massive FAANG war chests, and the momentary early adopter hype from people willing to pay for trash for the novelty, when you take into account the training costs in hardware, energy, and environmental costs…

The math just doesn’t add up, and I don’t believe it ever will. VCs and war chests are able to artificially prop stuff up for a very long time in the (false) hope that it’ll pay off but… the math will never add up. And if and when regulation (like copyright law) catches up, it’s going to be a BLOODBATH

Show threadNeia masksDec 17, 2024
@zkat Frustratingly, the hope isn't necessarily false for the VCs — but they're hoping for an acquisition or an IPO, not a working product.
Show threadKaterina MarchánDec 17, 2024
@neia that’s fair. Sometimes it’s easy to forget that scammy early adopters often make out like thieves, even if the thing as a whole is a massive failure (see: cryptocurrency and NFTs, which made a few people extremely rich and many more people much poorer)
Show threadCassandrich
@zkat @neia That's the whole VC/startups model: ponzi schemes. Nobody wants a working product or productive business. That's a pain and liability. They want a story they can sell to the next round of marks.
Dec 17, 2024 at 9:54amWeb