#JamBandStockReport

Goose

Rating: Sell

It’s hard to imagine a stock turning around so quickly after selling out two nights at Hampton for their signature event in Goosemas. But that’s what a scandal will do.

In the long term, we still feel Goose is a solid buy. But a big sell off is already happening. The question is when and how does it turn around.

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Phish

Rating: Sell

This rating may surprise you at first. But take a step back and think about it. After a sizzling year and dropping Gamehendge, there isn’t a lot of headroom for the 40yo band. Factor in the odd/even year principle and a Sphere run that seems to have created more frustration than excitement, and we’re selling high and will buy after the likely even year dip.

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Widespread Panic

Rating: Hold

Is there any other band that does a better job of delivering consistently awesome experiences year after year? Panic is like IBM stock. It won’t get too high, but it certainly won’t crash and you can just keep collecting dividends year after a year.

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Daniel Donato

Rating: Strong Buy

This kid is absolutely something special, and he has broad appeal in and beyond the jamband scene. He’s already selling out clubs all over, and we should expect to see him making jumps to bigger rooms as a headliner in no time.

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Umphrey’s McGee

Rating: Sell

Their stock has taken a tumble since the pandemic. Once the premier destination for Phish fans looking for something else, they’ve seen a huge increase in competition from Billy Strings and Goose.

Arguably the most original and inventive post-Phish jamband, they’ve somewhat stagnated in their sound and could benefit from a reset and re-invention.

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Billy Strings

Rating: Buy

While how well his music translates to arenas is still debatable, there is no question that he’s still growing in his quest to destroy rock and roll. Keep buying until his ceiling is in sight. And if you’re a drummer, go into hiding when his army of hillbilly white walkers comes to town before you get thrown into one of Billy’s drummer concentration camps.

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Spafford

Rating: Sell

After winning the reality game show The Next Great Jamband in 2017 and a phenomenal 2018-19, Spafford seemed destined for the jump to theaters. But then came the 2019 drummer swap, the pandemic, the rise of Goose & Billy, and finally the departure of founding keyboardist/vocalist Red Johnson.

Their dedication to the road is admirable and the jams can still be stellar. But it’s hard to imagine how long they can keep it up to dwindling crowds.

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Tedeschi Trucks Band

Rating: Hold

Hardcore Derek fans might be frustrated by what some see as a waste of talent in 70s classic rock solos and in-the-box safe playing for a band most famous for their covers.

But the truth is, most people love 70s classic rock and few do it better than TTB. There’s always money in the cover band, and for this reason we have TTB as a solid hold. Collect those dividends along with Derek & the Dominos covers, and go home happy.

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Neighbor

Rating: Hold

One year ago, this band was a solid BUY. However, it seems like the buzz died down, and for whatever reason they are not catching on and growing.

They are obviously talented with solid songwriting and vocals, so this rating isn’t a write-off. It just means be prudent and wait a bit before investing any more into them. With most of the band members having other jobs/gigs, one has to question the long-term dedication if stagnation continues.

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Dead & Co

Rating: Buy

Given that last Summer was supposedly their last tour, their stock is at its lowest point since John Mayer was announced as part of the band. Their final tour built up a ton of goodwill with the best play of their short career. It’s a great, low-cost investment that could have big upside with a rumored upcoming Sphere residency.

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Disco Biscuits

Rating: Hold

From the analyst’s view, the DBs seem to have settled into a good steady state. Their stock had a fairly big, multiyear sell-off leading up to 2019’s “setbreak is over” announcement. They then caught fire as a strong buy, but have since cooled and settled into a good space for an aging jamband.

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moe.

Rating: Buy

Sometime in the last few years, moe. has made an interesting transition from aging band with declining popularity to respected elders of the jam scene. From the analyst’s lens, overcoming recent battles with adversity (Rob’s cancer, Chuck’s stroke) have brought more energy to their shows and respect for what has been a pretty great career. It’s not hard to envision their revival since Chuck’s return continuing.

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Dogs in a Pile

Rating: Buy

I admittedly don’t know much about this band. But I have a friend I’ve been seeing Phish with for 20+ years who LOVES them. I finally agreed to give a listen, and I plan to go back for more. My first impression is they sound like a cross of Garcia Peoples and moe.

This band could offer a great option for those who enjoy rock improv but despise the tendencies of modern jambands to settle into late-90s Phish-inspired dance grooves.

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Taper’s Choice

Rating: Hold

If the band members cared about this band even 10% as much as their fans do, this would be a solid buy. But as it stands, there are no signs these supremely talented musicians plan to give up their day jobs to make Taper’s Choice anything more than occasional side gig.

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Garcia Peoples

Rating: Sell

This former NYC-Freaks darling and “next big thing” seems to have faded into oblivion. You might consider this a BUY due to a combination of immense talent and waning popularity that can’t possible wane anymore. But one thing is for certain with this outfit—they can’t manage themselves out of a paper bag. There’s always hope for a turnaround, but for now sell before you end up with nothing.

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King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard

Rating: Strong Buy

They are part of the jam scene now so why not? One of the most prolific rock bands ever, yet it feels like they have only scratched the surface of their potential.

KGLW’s stock took a tiny dip with the release of two albums that are arguably offensive to much of the jam scene for two completely different reasons in Petrodragonic’s metal and Silver Cord’s electronica. Perfect time to buy before their next release.

With a new admin, it’s time to update the #JamBandStockReport

If you missed the first round, click the hashtag or go back on this thread I keep nice and neat because I love you.

Eggy

Rating: Buy

In the last report, I questioned their ceiling due to songwriting and vocals that come up short. I still do. But again, these guys can flat out play.

For now, I’m keeping them as a buy, though I think their ceiling is far closer to 2018-19 Spafford than 2018-19 Umphreys.

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Goose

Rating: Hold

300 days ago I rated Goose a SELL and wrote, “It’s hard to imagine a stock turning around so quickly after selling out two nights at Hampton for their signature event in Goosemas. But that’s what a scandal will do.”

I was dead wrong. Cotter Ellis quickly made fans forget about the scandal as the band played to new heights—musically and commercially.

Still, it’s hard to imagine them taking another leap anytime soon. Hopefully, I’ll be wrong again.

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Phish

Rating: Sell

Last time I wrote, “After a sizzling year and dropping Gamehendge, there isn’t a lot of headroom for the 40yo band. Factor in the odd/even year principle and a planned Sphere run that seems to have created more frustration than excitement, and we’re selling high and will buy after the likely even year dip.”

I was so wrong. #Phish had arguably their best year since 2015? 2013? 2003? Maybe Trey reads my posts?

No way they can keep this up. Sell.

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Widespread Panic

Rating: Hold

Just gonna write the same thing I did last time:

Is there any other band that does a better job of delivering consistently awesome experiences year after year? Panic is like IBM stock. It won’t get too high, but it certainly won’t crash, and you can just keep collecting dividends year after a year.

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Daniel Donato

Rating: Strong Buy

Nothing has changed. Donato is still arguably the strongest buy in the report given where he is and what his ceiling is.

Wrote this last time:
This kid is absolutely something special, and he has broad appeal in and beyond the jamband scene. He’s already selling out clubs all over, and we should expect to see him making jumps to bigger rooms as a headliner in no time.

#JamBandStockReport

Umphrey’s McGee

Rating: Hold

Upgrading from a sell to a hold. Feeling is they bottomed out and are too talented not to rise again.

Last time:
Their stock has taken a tumble…Once the premier destination for Phish fans looking for something else, they’ve seen a huge increase in competition from Billy Strings and Goose.

Arguably the most original and inventive post-Phish jamband, they’ve somewhat stagnated in their sound and could benefit from a reset and re-invention.

#JamBandStockReport

Sturgill Simpson

Rating: Buy

First time on the stock report. Since Sturgill started playing live again, he seems to have tapped into his inner jamband fan, and it’s paying off in spades for his live shows. Covers, surprises, improv, and his impeccable voice and songwriting to go along with it.

If Sturgill stays on this path (and there is zero indication he won’t), he’s just getting started on his way to being a premier touring band.

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Billy Strings

Rating: Buy

I wrote the following last time:
“…there is no question that he’s still growing in his quest to destroy rock and roll. Keep buying until his ceiling is in sight. And if you’re a drummer, go into hiding when his army of hillbilly white walkers comes to town before you get thrown into one of Billy’s drummer concentration camps.”

Not much has changed outside of an impending MAGA admin accelerating the rise of jamgrass even more. Winter is coming.

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Spafford

Rating: Sell

After winning the reality game show The Next Great Jamband in 2017 and a phenomenal 2018-19, Spafford seemed destined for the jump to theaters. Then came the 2019 drummer swap, the pandemic, the rise of Goose & Billy, and finally the departure of founding keyboardist/vocalist Red Johnson. Add in leaves of absence by their founding guitarist & bassist.

While their dedication to the road is admirable, it's hard to imagine they keep it up much longer.

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Tedeschi Trucks Band

Rating: Hold

Not changing a word:

Hardcore Derek fans might be frustrated by what some see as a waste of talent in 70s classic rock solos & in-the-box safe playing for a band most famous for their covers.

But the truth is most people love 70s classic rock and few do it better than TTB. There’s always money in the cover band, and for this reason we have TTB as a solid hold. Collect those dividends along with Derek & the Dominos covers & go home happy.

#JamBandStockReport

Neighbor

Rating: Hold

I’m keeping these guys as a hold. Two years ago, they were a solid BUY. But it seems like despite their obvious musicianship plus solid (for a jamband) vocals and songwriting that they haven’t grown their audience much—if at all—over the past 1-2 years.

With most of the band members having other jobs/gigs, one has to question the long-term dedication. Still, we’re not saying write them off. We’re just not investing yet.

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Dead & Co

Rating: Sell

When we last reported on this stock, it was several months after their “final tour” and their stock was at an all time low. Our advice was to buy on the rumored Sphere run. The rumor came true and any investment was greatly rewarded.

While another Sphere run is rumored, we’re suggesting you play it safe and cash out. While their stock may hold at current value, we don’t see a scenario where it goes up again.

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Disco Biscuits

Rating: Hold

All reports are that these guys continue to play inspired shows night after night. While they aren’t growing, it doesn’t appear that they are shrinking either with their “sorry if you don’t” loyals fans never waning in support.

They appear to be in a healthy space for an aging jamband. Who would have ever guessed that these guys would still be rocking flat brims and techno jam dance parties into their 50s?

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moe.

Rating: Buy

These guys have been through so much. Rob’s cancer. Chuck’s stroke. The suicide of Rob’s son. Through all of it, they just keep on keeping on.

In the last few years, they’ve made a transition from aging band with declining popularity to respected elders of the jam scene. While they likely won’t ever reach their early aughts popularity, it’s not hard to envision their revival continuing.

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Dogs in a Pile

Rating: Buy

I believe it was @NateFederman
who described Dogs as “it’s as if a Grateful Dead jam became a band.” While these guys are highly derivative, more and more people are discovering that they are a great time.

They offer an option for those who enjoy rock improv but despise the tendencies of modern jambands to settle into late-90s Phish-inspired dance grooves. For this reason, we are keeping their BUY rating.

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Miles Davis

Rating: Buy

You’d think after 80 years of putting out music—not to mention dying—that Miles Davis might finally slow down. Nope.

Whether you’re a n00b diving into Silent Way for the first time or a jaded vet being blown away by his latest release, there’s always something for everyone. For this reason, we are keeping Mr. Davis as a strong buy as there is undoubtedly more to come.

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Taper’s Choice

Rating: Hold

Would love to see this turn into more of a side gig for these supremely talented band members. If ever they did, they’d be one of the top acts in the jam scene. But as it stands, if the band won’t take Taper’s Choice seriously, neither should the market. Until then, we’re keeping it a hold.

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Garcia Peoples

Rating: Hold

Remember when Garcia Peoples was the next big thing? It’s almost hard to as this point. Their combination of great songwriting and sprawling early GD-inspired jamming couldn’t overcome marketing and management skills unable to sell a golden retriever on dog treats.

We upgrading from a sell to a hold—not because of optimism, but because there isn’t much more room to slide.

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King Gizzard

Rating: Buy

For all intents and purposes—and even intensive purposes—Gizz is now a jamband.

Already one of the most prolific rock bands ever, yet it feels like they have only scratched the surface of their potential given how they still continue to evolve with each new release and tour.

Their stock took a tiny dip following Silver Cord, but all is back on track. The only question is how well will they adapt to arenas. My guess is quite well.