Olivier Simard-CasanovaMastodon/Fediverse vs. Bluesky rapid check
In the past few months, Bluesky (left) has seen massive growth
During the same period, the Fediverse (Mastodon + other parts of the ecosystem) has seen… nothing
The monthly active users curve remains stubbornly flat (right)
1/6
#SocialWeb
An important methodological precaution
Bluesky and Fediverse define “active user” differently
We cannot directly compare the two numbers
What we can do, though, is compare how each of these numbers evolve
Which is what I'm doing here
2/6
The Fediverse user base is ~75% made of Mastodon users
Mastodon's user base isn't flat, it's actually shrinking
And despite Brazil banning Xitter or Xitter removing the block feature, there were no waves of new users on Mastodon
3/6
The only analysis I want to add is that Bluesky has now become the de facto largest open social web ecosystem
And considering its ascending numbers, plus a few other signals, I wouldn't be surprised if Bluesky not only cements this position, but also becomes a true mainstream platform
4/6
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:esmiuxk53vmsllayghrq676w/post/3laj5ftcb5s26
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:esmiuxk53vmsllayghrq676w/post/3laj5ftcb5s26
Olivier Simard-Casanova (@o.simardcasanova.net)
Damn! I don't have systemic data on this, and I may be wrong, but it really feels that Bluesky has reached escape velocity If my intuition is correct, it means that the network externalities have reached the stage, or are very close to, where they start sustaining themselves #SocialWeb [contains quote post or other embedded content]
I know part of the tech community has recently migrated to Bluesky
It seems that building on Bluesky instead of building on the Fediverse now has drastically better prospects
I wouldn't be surprised if the Bluesky ecosystem experiences a boom of new third-party apps and services
5/6
Jürgen Hubert@o.simardcasanova.net So how #Trump -proof is #Bluesky ?
I mean, Trump himself might not care right now, but we are already seeing that #ElonMusk is going to have a massive influence on the new administration, and for tech-related policy in particular. I am going to assume that the moment he sees Bluesky as a serious threat, he is going to do his best to squash it or bring it into compliance.
Maybe the developers should move to Europe - company included.
damon@juergen_hubert @o.simardcasanova.net Even Europe may not be safe. They were already making threats to EU in regard to any punishments towards X. The US will weaponise the relationship and see if the EU is prepared to deal with that.
True, although it will save time.
The very best way to Trump-proof #Bluesky would be to turn all the code open source, and ensure that its structure can be decentralized so that no single group can control it.