The #COVID hospitalization rate in NYC has now been below 6 per lakh for over two months! We've gone three days between deaths reported.
The DEP still hasn't posted wastewater data samples taken after February 27, but case rates are continuing to drop.
#CovidIsNotOver and 20 people hospitalized per day is still too much. At this rate it will keep circulating and we will have another wave, probably when people go inside to escape heat or smoke. That's why I #WearAMask in crowded places!
The good #COVID news for New York City and State continues! We've been below 6 hospitalizations per lakh residents for over two months, so I'm now counting individual hospitalizations; we were down to 17 citywide last week, and went two days without a death again!
Of course #CovidIsNotOver and 17 hospitalizations per day and four deaths per week is too many. That's why I still #WearAMask in trains, elevators and doctors' offices!
I'll talk about #COVID19 trends and forecasts in future posts!
The graph of #COVID hospitalizations per day in New York City shows waves in the following seasons (with peak avg daily count):
Spring 2020: 1594
Winter 2020 - Spring 2021: 399
Summer-Fall 2021: 122
Winter 2021-2022: 1050
Spring 2022 - Winter 2023 (one long wave): 216
Fall 2023: 83
Winter 2023-2024: 155
It looks like in general these #COVID19 waves are getting shorter and milder. If 2024 is like 2023, we won't see another wave until mid-July at the earliest. Here's hoping!
The NYC #COVID #wastewater data from March 2024 is still not visible on the NY State wastewater tracker, but it was posted to the City's open data portal last week. The custom chart I made shows the data since fall 2022, summed citywide by sample date.
The data shows that #COVID19 concentrations have continued to drop steadily since the New Year's peak. #CovidIsNotOver but there's no sign of a new peak yet. Hopefully we won't get one for quite some time!
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/en/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID/cqex-qbk7
Since I was summing by day across all facilities in NYC, I was worried that the #COVID #wastewater samples taken from different facilities on different days might lower the values, so I isolated the facility where my waste goes, Bowery Bay (initials BB).
The pattern is the same as the citywide pattern, so they seem to be taking samples from all the facilities on the same day!
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID-Bowery-Bay-Northwest-Queens-/h8gx-2na6
Results of sampling to determine the SARS-CoV-2 N gene levels in NYC DEP Wastewater Resource Recovery Facility (WRRF) influent, disaggregated by the WRRF where the sample was collected, date sample was collected, and date sample was tested. RT-qPCR was changed to digital PCR in April of 2023, resulting values are about 10-20 times higher than those of RT-qPCR. Please refer to this <a href="https://data.cityofnewyork.us/api/views/f7dc-2q9f/files/b96b4f2f-45d0-4690-a68e-2343f8e5967a?download=true&filename=OpenDataDtldDscrp-060823.docx" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">supporting documentation</a> for more technical information Data may be used to track trends in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in NYC WRRF influent. Dataset does not include COVID-19 case rates.
Last week I didn't post the regular NYC #COVID case, hospitalization and death counts, but they were all trending in good directions.
That trend continues with this week's data, which indicates that we're now firmly in a trough like March-June 2023, early March 2022, June 2021 or September 2020. There has only been one #COVID19 death reported in the city between April 12 and April 22!
#CovidIsNotOver and I still #WearAMask in trains and doctors' offices, but no sign of an uptick in cases!
Last week my wife and I left the US for the first time since before 2020. Our first plane flight since before #COVID !
Outbound flight was a JetBlue Airbus 320. CO2 levels were above 1800 during takeoff and landing, and never went below 1000. We only took our masks off to eat.
Our return flight was a United Boeing 737 NG. #MaskUp during takeoff and landing when CO2 levels were above 1500, but they dropped below 700 in flight.
#WearAMask #MaskUp #COVIDisAirborne #CovidIsNotOver #COVID19
This week's #COVID numbers for NYC show no sign of a new wave. No wastewater data, but case counts continue to decline. Only 5 deaths in the ten days from April 14-23!
Unfortunately, the rate of decline seems to have tapered off, with #covid19 cases holding roughly steady at around 200 per day citywide, hospitalizations around 20 and deaths around 1.
That's still way too many. #CovidIsNotOver until we have a week with no case reports! I still #WearAMask on trains and in doctors' offices!
It turns out the #NYC DEP has been releasing more up-to-date #COVID #wastewater data, currently through April 28!
I wasn't seeing it in my custom chart because I was filtering the data by "Last 6 quarters" and it was waiting until this quarter finished (June 30)! I've now set the filter to "Last 365 Days."
The data is the best I've seen for NYC since I started looking at #COVID19 wastewater data!
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-wastewater-surveillance
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID/cqex-qbk7
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/NYC-Wastewater-COVID-Bowery-Bay-Northwest-Queens-/h8gx-2na6
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/SARS-CoV-2-concentrations-measured-in-NYC-Wastewat/f7dc-2q9f/about_data
Case and hospitalization counts for #COVID in New York City have actually ticked up slightly. Here's hoping it's just normal fluctuations and they will continue to decline!
Wastewater #COVID19 levels are available for May 5 - for some reason on the New York State portal and not on the City portal, but they show no sign of increase to that day.
This means #CovidIsNotOver so we still #WearAMask where there are vulnerable people. A manager of a chain pharmacy store thanked us the other day!
Welp, looks like last week's rise in #COVID cases in NYC is now matched by a rise in wastewater counts! Still lower than February, but keep your eyes out for a late Spring #COVID19 wave!
I'm still going to tomorrow's karaoke meetup, but if these keep going up I'm going to move June's karaoke online and stop eating indoors.
And I'm continuing to #WearAMask in elevators, trains, buses, doctors' offices, pharmacies and grocery stores!
I've written up a blog post about my strategy for deciding when to go from outbreak mode with #COVID to normal mode, with links to resources for the United States and New York City. Look for another post about deciding when to go back into outbreak mode soon!
https://grieve-smith.com/ftn/2024/05/how-do-we-know-its-safe/
I shouldn't be writing this. I have no training in medicine or epidemiology. I'm just some random person. And if you have something from a better trained source that tells you how to manage your exposure to airborne infectious diseases like COVID, the flu or RSV in order to avoid passing it on to
At the beginning of May, across the US and in NYC, #COVID, flu and RSV were all down, and combined hospital admissions were â…” the rate last year. In 2023 we had a two-month break before the summer wave!
Of course #CovidIsNotOver and now #COVID19 cases are ticking up, corroborating the wastewater counts I cited above. Hospitalizations and deaths are not yet rising, so let's hope it's a fluke, and we're not getting the next wave early. As long as people are dying I still #WearAMask on trains!
This week's NYC #COVID numbers: cases are still rising, but hospitalizations are steady and deaths are continuing to decline; only 3 deaths reported since May 13!
The highest recent 7-day average case total, May 26, is 390. When I got #COVID19 symptoms on Dec 20 it was 1785, and 3 weeks before that it was 798.
There's still a chance that this is a blip, but if it goes over 1000 cases a day I'm prepared to move karaoke online, stop eating indoors and #WearAMask in more shops! #CovidIsNotOver
#COVID cases continue to climb in New York City; I've set my threshold for going into outbreak mode at 1000 cases per day citywide, and they were at 448 on June 3. Wastewater has been higher towards the end of May, but still below 125 copies/mL.
For some reason #COVID19 hospitalizations aren't rising, except among those 75 and older.
I still #WearAMask in trains, buses, elevators, doctors' offices, pharmacies and grocery stores, and eat outdoors when it's not too much hassle!
NYC #COVID cases continue to rise, to 513 per day on June 8. No new wastewater data this week.
Hospitalizations are increasing, suggesting that the summer #COVID19 wave may start a month earlier than last year.
Fortunately, the most recent #influenza and #RSV report shows no sign of increasing cases as of May 18.
Governor Hochul is considering banning masks on transit, but I'm going to #WearAMask in trains, buses, elevators and doctors' offices to protect everyone around me!
The New York State #COVID wastewater portal is showing data not yet available on the City Open Data site.
For the past three months #COVID19 levels have been below 40 copies per millileter, something we only saw last April.
The most recent samples show 78 copies/mL on June 2 and 93 on June 4, which is in the range we saw in May-July 2023.
This tracks with other indicators: last year's summer wave basically lasted until we got a bigger winter wave.
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-wastewater-surveillance
NYC #COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths all continue to climb this week, with no peak in sight.
I've provisionally set a level of 1000 #COVID19 cases citywide per day (80 cases per day per lakh residents) before I go into Outbreak Mode.
Outbreak Mode means no singing, no parties, and #MaskUp even in outdoor crowds.
I'll try to do karaoke and a weekend away before things get really dangerous!
#COVIDIsNotOver so I still #WearAMask in elevators, trains, doctors' offices and supermarkets!
NYC #COVID cases, hospitalizations and #Wastewater concentrations just keep rising. I can't imagine that the heat wave and bad air have helped anything.
#CovidIsNotOver and #COVIDisAirborne so there are precautions we can take: #WearAMask in crowds and enclosed spaces, and where there are vulnerable people. Once the daily case count reaches 80 per lakh I'm moving karaoke 100% online.
More of us should be taking precautions, but those of us who haven't lost hope can still make a difference!
In NYC we're continuing to climb the summer #COVID wave, reaching 756 cases a day on June 30. Hospitalizations are also rising; deaths were an average of two per day last week. Will the end of the heat wave put an end to the climb?
#COVID19 cases haven't reached the threshold of 80 per lakh population per day I set, but I'm nervous enough to stop scheduling karaoke meetups.
#CovidIsNotOver so I still #WearAMask year-round in elevators, trains, doctors' offices, pharmacies and grocery stores.
This week's NYC #COVID news is more of the same: Cases continue to rise, but have not yest reached the threshold I set of 80 cases per lakh population per day.
Hospitalizations seem to be leveling off, and #COVID19 deaths may even be going down. Maybe the current mix of variants is less severe, at least at first?
As always, I #WearAMask in doctors' offices, elevators, trains, pharmacies and grocery stores. With this uncertainty I don't feel comfortable scheduling karaoke.
NYC #COVID update: the summer wave is definitely happening, as people socialize inside to avoid heat and bad air.
Cases are rising, to just under 80 per lakh per day. Hospitalizations are steady under 5 per lakh per day, and deaths are now up to a city average of 2 per day.
In addition to wearing a mask in crowded places like trains and elevators, or where there are vulnerable people like doctors' offices, I'm moving karaoke events online and avoiding indoor dining!
In NYC we're riding up the summer #COVID wave, as people spend more time indoors.
Cases continue to rise, now just under 80 per lakh per day. Hospitalizations are now over 5 per lakh per day, and deaths are up to 3 per day citywide.
We don't need to have these summer #COVID19 waves. We can reduce them in the short term if we #WearAMask, especially in crowded places and around vulnerable people, eat outdoors, and avoid indoor events with singing or shouting.
The New York City Department of Environmental Protection has finally released recent #wastewater #COVID results to the State monitoring page (but not yet to the City Open Data portal).
The #COVID19 concentrations vary, but are trending higher, consistent with case, hospitalization and death rates.
To reduce summer waves we need to reduce #ClimateChange that drives people indoors.
New Yorkers can do that by starting #CongestionPricingNow
cc @noneck
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-wastewater-surveillance
NYC #COVID hospitalizations have almost reached 6 per lakh per day, the level we tolerated with flu and RSV during Fall 2019. #COVID19 cases are correspondingly high, at 80 per lakh per day. Deaths are at 2 citywide per day, which was the rate all last fall.
This is technically just below the threshold, but for now I'm only organizing karaoke over Zoom and avoiding indoor dining and socializing.
I #WearAMask in crowded spaces and where vulnerable people are concentrated!
Could NYC's summer #COVID wave be cresting? Cases and hospitalizations are slightly down since they hit 87 cases and 5.81 hospitalizations per lakh the week ending July 27. Deaths seem steady at 3 per day.
It would be wonderful if the #COVID19 indicators went back to what we saw in April: 15 cases and 1 hospitalization per lakh per day, 1 death per day - or even lower!
Until then I'm avoiding indoor dining and karaoke, and I always #WearAMask in trains and doctors' offices!
It looks like NYC's summer #COVID wave has crested the week ending July 27, without breaking 6 hospitalizations per lakh per day! The peak case rate was 88 per lakh per day, and deaths are still at 3 per day citywide (0.2 per lakh per day).
#CovidIsNotOver so we rest and watch to see how low the #COVID19 rates go, and for signs of a fall wave. Cases and wastewater (see my next toot) are still falling.
While people are still being hospitalized I #WearAMask around crowds and vulnerable people!
And the NYC Department of Environmental Protection has released #COVID #wastewater data through August 6, both to the NYC Open Data Portal and the state aggregator!
#COVID19 concentrations rose from the beginning of June to peak on Bastille Day, and were still high in early August. Let's hope we won't have to wait another month!
With schools starting in the next few weeks, I'm hearing predictions of a fall wave soon, like last year. We can reduce its impact if we eat outside and #WearAMask !
The NYC summer #COVID wave has passed, but what level will we be at until the next wave? Cases aappear to have stopped declining at 62 per lakh per day. Hospitalizations are probably below 5 per lakh, and deaths have been at 3 per day until August 11.
I'm glad #COVID19 levels haven't continued to rise, and I will still watch for a fall wave, or hopefully further decline. In the meantime I will eat outdoors, minimize karaoke and #WearAMask in crowded spaces!
NYC #COVID indicators are dropping, but slowly. Cases may be below 60 per lakh population per day, hospitalizations below 5 per lakh per day, and deaths around 2 per day citywide.
At least one friend who has a school-aged kid is sick with #COVID19 so I hope we won't have another wave right away!
#CovidIsNotOver so I #WearAMask in crowded spaces and around vulnerable people, and try to eat outdoors. Hoping rates will stay low for a while, so I can feel comfortable organizing karaoke events!
NYC #COVID indicators continue to drop. Cases below 60 per lakh per day and hospitalizations below 6 per lakh per day for the past two weeks, and deaths down to 1 per day citywide.
I'm hearing about a bunch of friends and co-workers who've had #COVID19 over the past month. I'm glad I escaped this wave by working from home most days and avoiding in-person singing and indoor crowds, and of course I #WearAMask in confined spaces!
I've been invited to in-person karaoke this weekend. Wondering...
I've been hearing even more reports of #COVID infections from elsewhere in the US, so I checked national and worldwide data.
Yes indeed, there's a big #COVID19 wave nationwide, although as of August 10 it was below 5 hospitalizations per lakh per day.
According to the WHO, the US is responsible for the majority of COVID deaths in August. Other high death rates include New Zealand (where it's winter and they voted out Jacinda Ardern) and vacation countries Portugal and Greece.
Another week, another drop in #COVID indicators in NYC! Cases have been below 60 per lakh per day and hospitalizations below 6 for at least three weeks, deaths still at 1 per day on average.
I have officially exited Outbreak Mode, and this week I attended a wedding, in-person karaoke and a seminar. I may organize another in-person karaoke meetup soon.
But #CovidIsNotOver so I #WearAMask in trains, elevators, doctors' offices, pharmacies and supermarkets. And I eat outdoors whenever possible!
I'm frustrated to see that #COVID rates have stopped dropping in NYC. These daily average rates are below my threshold for going into Outbreak Mode, but they're still too high: 43 #COVID19 cases and 3 hospitalizations per lakh per day, and 2 deaths citywide per day.
I'll probably still organize a karaoke meetup and attend events unmasked, but I'm going to #WearAMask for the rest of my jury duty, and as usual, in doctors' offices, pharmacies, supermarkets, trains and elevators!
The latest NYC #COVID numbers are a bit reassuring: not going down as fast as they did in August, but they do seem to be continuing to drop, and there's no sign of a new wave!
I got a haircut yesterday and will probably do some karaoke and take short trips. Hopefully this trough will last through the live karaoke I'm planning to sing at on Oct. 28!
Of course #CovidIsNotOver so I'll #GetBoosted in the next few weeks, and #WearAMask in confined spaces and wherever there are vulnerable people!
NYC #COVID numbers are going down again! We're down below 2 people hospitalized for #COVID per lakh residents per day, which is where we were at the beginning of June. Still around 1-2 people dying per day.
It might be a good idea to fly somewhere before the winter wave. I'm definitely going to get some karaoke in!
#CovidIsNotOver so I'll #GetBoosted soon, and continue to #WearAMask in confined spaces like trains and elevators, and wherever there are vulnerable people, like doctors' offices!
So relieved to see NYC #COVID rates keep dropping! If the #COVID19 hospitalization count as of October 1 (18 citywide) isn't revised upwards it will be the lowest since March 2020! We may have to start measuring deaths per week instead of per day. And no sign of a fall wave in case or wastewater data!
But 18 !=0, #CovidIsNotOver and everyone is expecting a winter wave.
I got my #novavax on Friday, and still #WearAMask in confined spaces and where there are vulnerable people!
#NYC #COVID rates continue to drop! They're so low that I'm going to switch from rates relative to population to absolute numbers. What is 0.84 of a hospitalization anyway? I'll put them in the next post.
#CovidIsNotOver and I fully expect to see a winter wave, but I'm going to try and figure out criteria for when the risk of transmitting #COVID19 by eating in restaurants, attending concerts or crowded parties, or traveling long distances by train or airplane is low.
Angus Andrea Grieve-Smith
Andres