M.S. Bellows, Jr.Sep 25, 2024
This seems important: Russia's new nuclear policy is that if a non-nuclear state engages in a conventional attack against Russia (ie, Ukraine occupying Kursk and sending drones and missiles into Russia), and that non-nuclear state is "supported by" a nuclear state (ie, the U.S./U.K./France etc.), it will be considered a "joint attack" justifying a nuclear response.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/25/putin-nuclear-deterrent-ukraine-threat/
Russia’s nuclear doctrine to include attacks on nonnuclear states

Russian President Vladimir Putin said non-nuclear states supported by nuclear ones could face Russia’s nuclear deterrent in an expansion of its policy.

The Washington Post
Show threadWaltFrench
@msbellows how do we know this is a “policy” vs a talking point to help RFKJr claim Biden (Harris) is trying to start WW3?
Sep 26, 2024 at 12:41amWeb
Show threadM.S. Bellows, Jr.Sep 27, 2024
@WaltFrench The intelligence community seems to be taking it somewhat seriously: https://mastodon.social/@hanse_mina/113207788644945282
Show threadWaltFrenchSep 27, 2024
@msbellows We hire them to be paranoid for us; I sure hope they’re taking it seriously. But I suppose they’d be the first also to say that Putin has used strategic ambiguity in the past
Show threadM.S. Bellows, Jr.Sep 27, 2024
@WaltFrench My take is that, yes, it's mostly a bluff to get us not to show Ukraine to use our long-range nukes – but if it becomes obvious that we're calling his bluff, Putin could be so weakened that his political or even literal survival requires him to unleash a tactical nuke or two to save face. And then the retaliation cycle starts....