A new NAO report concludes:

'We are concerned that the NHS may be working at the limits of a system which might break before it is again able to provide patients with care that meets standards for timeliness & accessibility';

So, the NAO suggests either the Govt. ramps up funding quicker/higher than planned, or ways must be found to reduce demand!

The humane (but long-term) way is via preventive medicine, but the short-term 'solution' will likely be explicit rationing!

#health #NHS

h/t FT

@ChrisMayLA6 the trouble with rationing is that affluent people buy their way past the rationing system! Higtening the inequity gap!
Perhaps reversing the trend towards ever higher efficiency by cutting beds and amalgamation of hospitals, might be part of the answer. Would certainly help nosocomial infection rates, and reduce waiting list for non super specialist care.
And because of network effects throuput could rise....!

@epistatacadam

Yes, the NHS has been 'run hot' with little spare capacity for some time, and we are now seeing the inefficiencies this actually causes.....

@ChrisMayLA6 ah, but prevention is often a non-medical public health concern, and therefore a totally separate budget from regular NHS activities.

It doesn't matter that every pound spent on public health saves orders of magnitude more on healthcare. We don't have joined up accounting, therefore we don't have joined up thinking.

@JetlagJen @ChrisMayLA6 We did have "joined up government" once.

But, like "big society" and "levelling up", it was only a slogan, nothing ever actually happened.

@JetlagJen @ChrisMayLA6 it was returning public health to local authorities in 2003 that separated Public Health Funding from NHS funding. The warnings were given but of course ignored by the Blair government.

@ChrisMayLA6 rationing in the NHS is already widespread.

For example, shared a pilot plan to ration A&E in England :

https://paktodon.asia/@SiR_GameZaloT/112772674857690311

๐ƒ๐ซ. ๐•ต๐–Ž๐–‡๐–—๐–Š๐–Š๐–‘L โ‚ฒโฑซโ‚ฎ ๐ŸŒ (@[email protected])

#NHS isn't "broken". Its been short-changed, starved, and shrunken. When all of primary and secondary care capacity was starved of funds and shrunk, A&E was forced to pick up the slack. Eventually, even they would give up. Behold, #NHSEngland now considering implementing "appointment only" admissions to A&E. https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/integrated-care-systems/ae-by-appointment-only-as-icb-reveals-radical-plans-for-acute-care/ #UK #England #Health #Healthcare #Labour 1/2

The First Pakistani Mastodon Instance!
@SiR_GameZaloT @ChrisMayLA6 NHS dentistry has been increasingly rationed for many years now, and majority seem to have accepted that you either pay privately or just don't have your teeth routinely checked/cleaned, many only seek treatment in emergency, sometimes paying unlicenced people to do it. Poor dental health then leads to cascade of other health complications that land at the NHS's door. Very few winners out of this, overall terrible for UK.
@SiR_GameZaloT @ChrisMayLA6 Some numbers on the issue here (from March 2023) Surprised to see as many as 53% of respondents were registered with NHS dentist. My NHS dentist went private two years ago https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45450-one-ten-britons-have-performed-dentistry-themselve
One in ten Britons have performed dentistry on themselves, half in the last two years | YouGov

Britons report pulling their own teeth out and making their own dentures

@ChrisMayLA6 I'd challenge the belief that health improvements are a slow effect. Some work extremely quickly, relieving pressure on the system within a year. Predominantly via improving people's hope in the future! The effects are not trivial but similar to those achieved by many routine medications.

@ChrisMayLA6

Both. Reduce demand and increase spending. But thatโ€™s a bigger issue than the health budget alone. Goes back to the notion of joined up government which sounds, well, just a little too unpalatably central planning socialist for the current regime.

It already, implicitly, is. Waiting lists; qualifying criteria; restricted treatment duration (eg immunotherapy). All of which can be bypassed if you can afford it (most canโ€™t).

@GreenerFutures @ChrisMayLA6 exactly!

Criteria for testing for instance are so much more stricter now than what I learned in med school.

You can call it "efficiency", I consider it rationing. Its extremely bad for patients.

If you need to be at an advanced state of the disease to qualify for a test, whats the point of the test then?

I learned in school it was to catch it early and preserve health.

In practice, the criteria barely allow for "early" anymore.