1/ Fine. Milton Friedmans: The Optimum Quantity of Money

For the record: It is my opinion that this man should've stood trial for crimes against humanity.

2/ Introduction: He states that when examining the optimum quantity of money one will also examine
1. the optimum behavior of the price level
2. the optimum rate of interest
3. the optimum stock of capital
4. the optimum structure of capital
3/ Part 1: "Hypothetical Simple Society"
1. Constant population (the beings are either immortal or represent a lineage) (??!!?)
2. given tastes
3. fixed volume of physical resources
4. "a given state of the arts" (?)
5. "The society, though stationary, is not static." (?)
6. Competition reigns (surprised face)
7. Capital goods are infinitely durable, cannot be reproduced, used up or damaged
8. Capital goods are owned, but cannot be bought or sold
9. No lending or borrowing
10. "The only exchange is of services for money or money for services or services for services"
11. prices can change freely
12. all money is fiat (dollars)
13. There are 1000$
4/ Part 2: "Initial equilibrium position"
Our society has somehow reached some sort of "equilibrium".
We start with ""why have money?"
Basically to pay for stuff or save, and then he decides that on average people will "hold" is 1/10 of a years income.

5/ Part 3: "Effect of Once-and-for-all change in the nominal quantity of money"

A helicopter drops 1000$ on the society (for real it says that)
Everyone thinks this is a freak one-off event
By yet another freak accident, everyone gets exactly the amount they had before, effectively doubling their money.
He now assumes they will all spend it
"The assumption that he was in a stable equilibrium position before means that he will now want to raise his consumption and reduce his cash balances until they are back at the former level" (this guy is a trip)
They can only trade with each other. So when one spends another gains (which tbh should cause that person to need to spend more which would cause someone else to get more and they'll all just go nuts in some messed up infinite loop?)
Basically he just draws the conclusion that "obviously" prices will double.

6/ Part 3: Cont: "Effect of Once-and-for-all change in the nominal quantity of money"
We will now assume what each person got is random.
ROFL they will all spend what they got and return to their happy equilibrium (Don't ask me I'm just reading)
Prices double
(for real I don't know)
Everyone wants to spend all their extra money, but some people picked up less than what they had before and since prices doubled they now have less money than before.
The rich will spend more and work less, the poor will spend less and work more.đŸ€·â€â™€ïž
7/ Part 4: "Basic Principles Illustrated"
He seems to think that this was a useful exercise proving that the value of the money in the world is static or something. This is a very silly section. So 2000$ now is the same as 1000$ before because everyone has a drive towards their equilibrium of cash. Poor folks just like being poor.

8/ Part 5: "Effect of a continuous increase in quantity of money"
New scenario: "Money rains down from heaven at a rate that produces a steady increase in the quantity of money, let us say, of 10% per year."
And of course (?????) prices increase by the same amount annually.
This part is hard to understand, but I think he's saying that you will spend more because you know your money will be worth less over time?
Dear lord, if our main character got half his money destroyed he would just consume less to fill up his bank account to the equilibrium level again. He'll be happy to do it.
I don't know, something about the fact that he knows the helicopter will come makes him use 1 dollar and 10 cent, apparently this is so obvious we'd all do it, but I don't even understand the text.
Prices increase by 10% per year and he's decreasing his holdings to 1/12th of his yearly income... For reasons?

Oh wait I missed a bit: prices rise because people think prices will rise?

bbl

9/ Aside: Is it just me or does this feel like a Star Trek TNG episode?

10/ Cont. Part 5: "Effect of a continuous increase in quantity of money"
Apparently there is a "equilibrium path of prices" I guess that is our magic price increase (inflation). Basically a magic force will manipulate all of the actors back to their original states.

Ok... you need to reduce the money in the bank by 20% (to 1/12 of yearly income) to... mumble mumble something equilibrium. Then after that balance has returned to the force and everyone can continue with 10% increase a year.

And some stuff about overspending and underspending while you try to hit your perfect spending which is 10% per year.

Some people might've gotten richer than others and a very confusing story about an errand boy.

11/ Part 6: "Welfare effects"

Our hero is now worse off because he has less money in the bank (for reasons that allude me, but Friedman thinks are obvious) and... "He has a lower real income because productive resources have been substituted for cash-balances, raising the price of consumption services relative to the price of production services."

I don’t understand, feel free to explain it to me. Anyway, lets continue.

Ah, he is trying to play with functions so apparently the bank account thing is wealth and is a part of the "utility function" and the income thing something something "production function".

Oh dear I'm losing interest...

We'll put a pin in it. I'll pick it up tomorrow, maybe I can muster more interest in the worst Star Trek episode ever then.

12/ Cont. Part 6: "Welfare effects"

Ok, I'm back. Lets try it again!

I thnk where he lost me was with the errand boy story in the previous section. So lets look at that.

13/ feel free to read it with me. I’m just going to read that one essay so it’s about 50 pages it seems.
https://books.google.no/books/about/The_Optimum_Quantity_of_Money.html?hl=no&id=o3hBAAAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y
The Optimum Quantity of Money

Google Books

14/ Return to Part 5: "Effect of a continuous increase in quantity of money"

So maybe it's my English not being at native speaker level, but I can't parse that. Can anyone explain what it is that he is saying?

15/ Return to Part 5: "Effect of a continuous increase in quantity of money"

So the context seems to be that we have inflation of 10% so that means that prices increase at a rate of 10% per year, which to me would suggest that it is better to keep "your money" or "wealth" in stuff that would maintain their value because they would increase with the other prices.

So maybe he is saying that he doesn't want to hold petty cash, or keep it very low, because any constant cash amount is losing it's value. So the retailer thinks that keeping very little cash and instead hiring someone to run to the bank when needed, will be more profitable?

Is that a reasonable interpretation?

16/ Back to Part 6: "Welfare effects"

Ok, based on the previous interpretation that also explains why our hero reduced his savings by 20% (feels a bit arbitrary, but most people like to have some buffer at least, if they can), since keeping money (in the bank or in cash) means it loses 10% in value every year, so it makes sense to me that he doesn't feel like saving more than necessary.

17/ Cont. Part 6: "Welfare effects"

So the assertion is that he is worse off in two ways:
1. He is poorer because he has less savings

And the thing I didn't understand yesterday.

18/ Cont. Part 6: "Welfare effects"

I don't know what that means, but I think it is related to the previous story of the errand boy. That businesses are hiring people (productive resources?) over keeping cash around. But I don't know why that would affect prices of anything, and I don't think I know what "consumption services" and "productive services" are.

19/ Cont. Part 6: "Welfare effects"

Lets see if we can continue anyway.

Looks up English words:
non·​pecuniary. : not consisting of money.

20/ Meta: I'm deleting and reposting because I keep on breaking the thread here on desktop.

21/ Cont. Part 6: "Welfare effects"

Ok, lets try: Nobody wants to hold cash because cash is rotting at 10% a year. So for our hero personally he has reduced his savings to what he needs short term, and so has businesses.

consumption services:

"Consumption differs from consumption expenditure primarily because durable goods, such as automobiles, generate an expenditure mainly in the period when they are purchased, but they generate “consumption services” (for example, an automobile provides transportation services) until they are replaced or scrapped. "
https://www.britannica.com/money/consumption

So the car loses in value, but the "utility" of "having a car" is not losing value? Maybe?

22/ Cont. Part 6: "Welfare effects"

How is this paragraph so hard to grok? I'm starting to think I'm missing some assumed definitions.

The page cited in the previous post has some explanations further down and I think maybe we have hit a central concept: "The rational optimization framework"

"consumers’ preferences are assumed to be captured by a utility function"

And breaks down that function:

1. "that the urgency of consumption needs will decline as the level of consumption increases (this is known as a declining marginal utility of consumption)"

2. "that people prefer to face less rather than more risk in their consumption (people are risk-averse)"

3. "that unavoidable uncertainty in future income generates some degree of precautionary saving."

So maybe this is about 3? The utility of savings is less when money loses value?

23/ Cont. Part 6: "Welfare effects"

Maybe: that he has less savings feels bad because he is less secure in the event he might lose his job? And something about having money in your account and productive services, which I'm just going to give up on.

I'm giving up on this whole section to be honest.

What makes sense to me is:
A) savings (in money) make little sense when they are falling in value
B) stuff that is useful over time makes sense to buy because the use you get is constant and buying a new one is progressively more expensive.
C) Tbh buying stuff seems like a good idea in general, especially durable stuff that might be resold later, because prices are increasing, it's just money that is losing value.

So spend your money fast for all your daily needs, and save in things, like your home or gold or whatever.

24/ I would love to hear from folks that have lived through high inflation. How did it affect how you used money?

25/ my maternal grandmother got a small inheritance long before I was born. She used the money to buy silverware. The way I remember it told, she said that this was her insurance, as a housewife, she kept her “money” in the kitchen 😅

And her parents, who had 5 daughters, insisted they all get an education. Also an insurance against the risk of being a woman, because a housewife could at any time lose her entire life if her husband left her. Or if she left him (oh the scandal). So an education and savings was protection and possibly leverage at a time when women had fewer rights and options.

26/ it’s really sad that I suddenly thought that this was probably good advice for women in the US right now. Get property (land, jewelry, stocks, anything) that is your own, and an education and a job. So you are less financially vulnerable in a potentially violent patriarchy.

27/ Cont. Part 6: "Welfare effects"

Basically the rest of this section is talking about how if you save you can't spend, but the people you save with (bank) can spend it. And when someone spends, someone else gets and so basically it all ends up in zero. A very boring graph made an appearance.

28/ Part 6: "Effect of a continuous decrease in the quantity of money"

He starts with asking if deflation causes a "welfare gain" if inflation causes a "welfare loss". So instead of a helicopter we will burn money in a furnace.

29/ Cont. Part 6: "Effect of a continuous decrease in the quantity of money"

The furnace is tax. Our society has a tax of 10% and it seems that that means 10% of the money disappears a year.

He says that prices would then decrease with 10% - I am assuming this is the "magic equilibrium" again.

So under "deflation" prices go down or in other words: money is more valuable.

Now saving makes sense, because just sitting on cash means it will be worth 10% more in a year.

And he says that prices have to drop low enough that it's possible for people to start doing the saving.

30/ I have questions.

Firstly, he keeps on assuming everyone can save and everyone has income.

Secondly, a lot of your "consumption" is because you have to do it. Like food, shelter, healthcare, whatever. That is not very elastic.

Thirdly, he seems to think that people who get more will immediately spend it. But in my experience poor people tend to spend (they are running in negative already), rich people tend to save (they have all they need).

I have a lot more, like political unrest and addiction, how about Instagram as a mechanism that affects consumption?

31/ Cont. Part 6: "Effect of a continuous decrease in the quantity of money"

Of course once our society of extremely average immortal beings have built up their savings to "appropriate levels" (which according to Friedman is now 12% of their yearly income) it will return to its "equilibrium".

So seemingly they are all better off, but there is a twist!

32/ Cont. Part 6: "Effect of a continuous decrease in the quantity of money"

If prices decrease a lot, suddenly we have all this extra cash. And now we have to protect all of the money.

This doesn't really make sense to me because if everyone got rich why would anyone bother to rob you? I would assume crime would be way down. People would probably work less and lay on the beach instead.

33/ Cont. Part 6: "Effect of a continuous decrease in the quantity of money"

ROFL mr Friedman seems to think that people will stop hoarding cash because it's a hassle.

And from this ridiculous assumption he concludes that at a certain point falling prices will be a bad thing for the society. Dear lord.

And then a lot of text which seems to be about interest rates and how if you have stuff in the bank then you get interest on it. So using it instead means that you lose all the future interest you could've gotten if it was in the bank.

34/ Cont. Part 6: "Effect of a continuous decrease in the quantity of money"

He introduces a thing I don't understand:

Internal Rate of Discount (IRD)

If he saves more then IRD < 10%
If he keeps his savings the same IRD = 10%
if he saves less IRD > 10%

Maybe IRD is the cost of spending your savings? You lose the value increase in the deflation + interest

35/ I need a break, this is confusing, I think he just said that whether you spend your savings has nothing to do with your consumption and that can't be right.

36/ I think I need to nail down the lingo. So here are some short YouTube videos.

Utility: https://youtu.be/UnX8RPB5vFM?si=KVISInzh_v_6SFod

Introduction to utility | APⓇ Microeconomics | Khan Academy

YouTube
37/ lol ok, so this is why Milton thinks we might get tired of money 😂 dude, that’s just silly

38/ let’s do that a bit more.

Marginal utility: https://youtu.be/Kf9KhwryQNE?si=QVATujJv6xoI6jNC

Marginal Utility

YouTube
39/ Oh my, the math. Oh wow. This is primary school math.
40/ Fine let’s go to MIT. They’re supposed to be smart, right?
“Preferences and utility functions”
https://youtu.be/tCKk22kaZi4?si=9cRNf9tHhlbNwpJN
2. Preferences and Utility Functions

YouTube
@Patricia For every one of these threads I read it just reads like class struggle to me, the people on top, who are the economists, does not see the struggles of the lower classes, and sees them as lesser people wo don't deserve better, or that they are "in their right place" and they can't see themselves, because they are living sheltered plush covered lives themselves never having to worry about money, so they see it as something they can play around with to "achieve goals"
@sotolf it’s clear to me that he needs everything to be uniform for the math to work, but the world isn’t uniform so the math is useless

@Patricia That as well, sure ;) It's just wild how they think that a simplified model of a chaotic system like an economy will be in any way accurate in general is the lesson I've learned from your posts :).

Not that I had a high view of economists from the outset :p

@Patricia more sad that, in the US. some women, let alone men, are actively pursuing a return to that past housewife only setup 🙄
@Patricia buying gold jewelry is always a good option, because it's easy to transport and easy to sell, and nobody thinks twice about a woman's jewelry.
@streganil for once toxic masculinity works in our favor 😂

@Patricia it affects everything in your life from grocery shopping to retirement planning. It makes taking and issuing credit very risky at best, and unavailable at worst. It makes renting agreement very risky for both parties, and in periods of inflation instability usually unavailable. Saving is something only the wealthy can do

It can lead to desperate measures like price controls that disincentivize production and sales

It's in every conversation all the time and you cannot escape it.

@Patricia living in Argentina 24 years is the reason I tend to lean somewhat conservative in terms of monetary policy and put so much value on stability first.
@nsa in my experience, everywhere in the world, regular people just want to live their lives without being afraid and without being hungry or unhoused. And they (understandably imo) are willing to sacrifice quite a lot of their “freedom” for that. That doesn’t make them “brainwashed” (which a lot of the my-freedom people say), it makes them pragmatic and realistic. They know what they have. And they have heard big promises before.

@Patricia I get what he's saying, kinda, but people don't do that. If money gets tight, they buy less, and save what they can.

I think that's why raising interest rates counters inflation. It ensures that the money in the bank earns interest faster, incentivizing people to save, which reduces demand, which stops inflation.

@bmac you would need interest rates that were constantly higher than inflation, that really doesn’t really scale in my mind.

@Patricia @bmac

Keep in mind, "raising interest" is not itself the activity. It's a shorthand for "the central bank will lower its money creation until interest rates increase to the new target".

In cases of out of control inflation, that is just not an option. Those occur if the government needs the new money to keep functioning, and is somehow constrained to find other sources of income.

@Zamfr @Patricia I agree; it's a matter of perspective. I was thinking more "the US in the 70s" as opposed to Argentina. That's on me.
@bmac @Patricia
Yeah, in years when inflation is under control, Argentina has inflation similar to the highest peaks of the 1970s US.
@Patricia I had a "paper route" back when daily newspapers cost 10 cents; I earned $0.01 per delivery (age hint). Savings accounts earned 4% and loans were 5% (I'm exaggerating a bit). Then loans went to 18% and savings went to 6%, then dropped. Prices rocketed so the challenge was whether to put money aside, knowing it would be worth much less later than then.
Friends ran up debt ("The interest is tax deductible"--wah?) but I saved anyway.
Tl;Dr I was less extravagant than I might have been.
@jspath55 did you save in money or did you save in other sellable items?
@Patricia Money, and home ownership. My comic book collection turned out not too sellable. :)
@jspath55 homeownership was my goal too, because at least I would have a home. If I could manage to hold on to it.