Goldman Sachs issues a report about generative AI; currently too expensive to justify ROI, no killer app and looming power & chip shortages.

That said they see money to be made if a killer app is found and also simply because bubbles take a long time to burst.

You can read the entire 31 page report below https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf

@carnage4life the hype cycle is compressing these days.
@carnage4life even if someone comes up with a killer app idea, it wont be worth it to pay rent to the AI companies

@carnage4life the fascinating part of this take is that “the killer app” is yet to emerge.

big investment is in upstream services, LLM training & data acquisition. But none of it is successful without someone downstream having a revelation about how they can be used

more interesting, it’s not clear that we need bigger LLMs to surface that killer app. like, OpenAI & anthropic could die today and maybe AI could still flourish. that’s possible

@kellogh @carnage4life my hunch is once Apple Intelligence stuff ships and becomes an everyday tool for a large number of people, we'll start to see a bit less daydreaming about what "AI" could be (and hopefully more focus on building useful products, but who knows, maybe another hype cycle will come along)

@carnage4life and yet less than a year ago Goldman Sachs releaved a list of "50 stocks that are positioned for substantial long-term growth due to the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI)."

Are they selling their Nvidia stock, or buying on the potential dip precipitated from this recent report?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-reveals-long-term-ai-portfolio-here-are-the-50-stocks-to-monitor-1032573922?op=1

Goldman Sachs Reveals Long-Term AI Portfolio: Here Are The 50 Stocks To Monitor

markets.businessinsider.com
@carnage4life You can say “a ton of money could be made if just found something useful to do with it” about anything though. The question in the short term is how many folks go bust buying picks if the gold just isn’t there.
@carnage4life "Bubbles take a long time to burst"? I feel like this metaphor has run its course.