TheDudeV2TRUMP GUILTY ON ALL 34 COUNTS
ryan213Do you guys think this matters to his voters/supporters?
Some undecideds, sure. It only takes ten thousand voters in a couple swing states to change the outcome.
TropicalDingdongI mean, that could have been the difference in the 2016 election.
Remember when Clinton lost the election because the FBI didn’t find anything on her assistant’s laptop?
I mean she could have spent a weekend in Michigan. That was an unforced error.
She could have addressed her relationship with Goldman Sachs, and all the other banks that fucked over the entirety of the American people during the housing crisis that she earned millions upon millions giving “speeches” to.
She could have made an olive branch to the progressive caucus.
She could have not said “Sit down and shut up” to BLM activists.
There are a lot of things she could have done.
She could have Pokemon gone to Michigan
Amazing 👏
ddittyShe was too busy “just chilling” in Cedar Rapids
Just chillin' in Cedar Rapids, Hillary Clinton Vine, KnowYourMeme #3
OpenStarsWith hot sauce in her purse? 👛👜
That’s a trick question btw - the hot sauce is always in her purse! 😂
SkullgridShe could also not have stolen the fucking nomination from Sanders
Its fine though. The Supreme Court said they can rig their own primaries. /s
I think she would’ve won regardless of everything else, but it would’ve been closer. Really the mistake from the primaries is that she didn’t really try to incorporate any of Bernie’s ideas into her platform, or even work with him at all. She treated him as an opponent and obstacle, not as a rival and peer.
This is where Biden was successful however – he didn’t dismiss Bernie nor his platform ideas. He did incorporate some into presidency, most obviously the climate change policies and student debt forgiveness where possible.
And where I sincerely believe this difference came down to – Biden was friendly to Bernie in the Senate and made an effort to be friendly colleagues, if not work friends. Clinton didn’t. It shows the power of cooperation allying together with progressives, instead of allying together with “moderate” Republicans.
There were a lot of factors at play in 2016, and the margin was tiny. She had a lot of factors under her control that could’ve led to victory.
Or, like, hear me out, the Democrats could have not nominated her and nominated someone who isn’t strongly disliked by both sides.
John RichardAmen. After Bill, we had enough of the Clintons. Maybe Americans don’t like politicians keeping it in the family afterall.
Boomer Humor DoomergodTo be fair, we elected a Bush twice, and if Sirhan Sirhan hadn’t shot Bobby we’d have had two Kennedies to go along with the Roosevelts and Adamses
Yes but all in the past and none of them husband and wife. Like taxes and property, people see husband and wife as being one and the same.
Should’ve Been Bernie
That’s all true, but she still would have won without the dramatic search of Huma Abadeen’s laptop.
I dont think that moved anyone. Like I really dont. The laptop thing was only interesting to Trump die-hards.
Maybe, but it happened right before the election. I observed noticeable shift in attitude. That’s not good evidence, I know, but Clinton’s polls, which had been steady, took a 3% dip at the time and stayed down through election day.
People talked about the polls being off compared to the election, but the election matched the post-Comey polls pretty well. It’s only the polls that mixed pre-Comey data that were too high for Clinton.
If you are interested in doing a more detailed analysis of this, I can supply you with some boiler plate code. 538 has pretty detailed polling data that’s free to download. I’m going to be getting into it later in June for my monthly polling update.
I was considering calculating Trumps polling error differential from 2016 and seeing how it changed to 2020. I did a map of his differential polling error for 2020 for my update two weeks ago.
I’m also considering of taking the differential polling result for just swing states, applying it to current polling, and mapping out a series of ‘pathways’ to 270 for each candidate, highlighting where the pressure points are.
I think a trying to model the impact of a single news story could be pretty interesting.
You know I completely forgot about that laptop thing. I remember the emails but that is about it.
samus12345Trying to run for president while having two X chromosomes was a massive error on her part as well.
Voters decided against her for mishandling classified documents, right? So these same voters, who think things through with consistency and integrity, will decide against someone who stole boxes of documents and got CIA agents killed selling state secrets to Russia, right?
It blows my mind that anyone can still be undecided in 2024.
LibertyLizardLot of people don’t pay any attention to politics. Yes, even in this climate.
SanguineParTo many of them, no. To some who would have voted for him, maybe yes.
Everyone talks about his base as an unmoving monolith. But to get elected, he needs more than his base. He needs the fence sitters. Many of these people may be very ill informed about all the corruption in his original administration and his business dealings. This result will make a big difference to them because it's simple to understand. He's a convicted felon.
khannie34 times no less.
This. There’s a lot of components to his base.
This is not a good outcome for his campaign.
Convicted felons can’t run for US President so yes, it does matter.
That isn’t true though. Most convicted felons can’t vote, but they can run for office.
Except they can. Can’t vote depending on the crime and the state, but can totally hold office.
Pretty sure felons can’t vote in Florida.
There’s some evidence to suggest he’ll lose significant support: …yougov.com/…/48654-would-donald-trump-conviction…
But hard to know for sure.
I’m making a called shot of a drop into the 40’s for July’s polling.
He wont’ drop below 25%, ever. That’s his core. They may never support another candidate again.
However, dropping to high 30’s low 40’s only puts Trump back to par with Biden. Hardly a W, but at lease Biden would be back in the running.
They may never support another candidate again.
Don’t do that. Don’t give me hope.
I mean it in a “There are still people who think gamestop is going to be a billion dollar stock” manner.
See: lemmy.world/c/gamestopstock
Cult/ Cargo cult level “They will never support another candidate again” is what I mean. They’ll write him in. They’ll have wild conspiracy theories. Not need to push. It will happen it on its own.
I would guess its around 25-30% of Republican voters. Its the conspiracy theory mind-set cutting backwards against those that seed it. There is no undoing this.
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If Donald could please just die and they continue writing in his name for all future votes that would be great. They are the most ignorant and racist people within a party wholly committed to cultivating ignorant and racist voters.
Thats what I’m conjecturing. This is the cohort that thought JFK was going to show up to some event or something a few months ago.
A few months ago? Jesus Christ, I remember that dumb shit from the numerology crew and I had kinda lost track of them for a couple of years. This country would be so much better if they would throw their ballots in the trash. Here’s hoping.
yahoo.com/…/why-qanon-believers-think-jfk-1708392…
I don’t think you need to worry about them throwing their ballots away as long as we can get through this gate.
I suspect some people will mental gymnastics themselves into thinking this isn’t a serious crime, and stipulating an abstract ‘serious crime’ yields more extreme results than we’ll see as a result of this verdict.
But a few percentage point swing in a few key states is enough to ensure a Biden victory, so it may be enough.
Guy IngonitoThe fact of the matter is for a lot of white Americans it’s either support the republican nominee or those scary minorities will take over. To them, a white criminal is preferable to what they see as guliable saps at best or race traitors at worst.
That’s before Facebook and Fox News kicks in though.
They can rewrite people’s brains.
The end of the article after discussing the failure of the impeachment of Clinton to actually change polls despite a difference in the hypothetical poll question before it occurred:
“It’s possible for people to say a conviction would change their minds, but when/if [a conviction] happens, it’s possible (even likely) that it won’t matter at all."
BoozillaMy gut feeling is there’s nothing in this world that will sway his core supporters. Those rabid mouth-breathing dumbass kool-aid drinking dipshits would disown their own children if they thought one of them voted for a democrat.
However, I think it could sway a lot of swing voters away from Trump. In American elections for POTUS, swing voters are extremely important.
Unfortunately, Biden is fucking up so bad on foreign policy (Gaza) that will lose Biden a lot of swing voters, too. Still anybody’s race is my guess.
This is just all my gut. It’s hard to trust polls anymore.
Swing voters either dgaf about Gaza or are in favor of what Israel is doing. Gaza hurts Biden with his base.
Anyone who gives a shit about Gaza probably should try to ensure the country doesn’t elect a Muslim Ban guy who wants to accelerate the genocide and deport anyone protesting it.
Fuck off to Nick Fuentes then.
FYI: Those leftists are right wing trolls under a false flag, exactly like those “Biden takes 100% blame for Israel’s every action” guys. They come from /pol and Telegram.
I think “all 34 counts” is more meaningful than 33 out 34 or anything less.
Any truly room temperature IQ folks out there can maybe see the light. Maybe.
Or they see it as “See? The courts are obviously corrupted. Not even one count was innocent? There’s no way he committed THAT much crime.”
return2ozmaIt emboldens his supporters because they believe the “deep state”, “witch hunt”, “Democrats paid off the jury” etc according to social media now.
I could see Biden dropping out of the debate also saying “I don’t debate felons”.
Maybe his core supporters, but past elections have shown that he can’t win the popular vote. He is dependent on swing states where there are more people on the fence, and this might be enough.
I doubt Biden would use this as an excuse to drop out of the debate. His campaign thinks the debate will help him more than Trump, and they’re probably right. Outside of his diehard supporters and people keeping up with politics, most voters haven’t heard Trump speak at length since the end of his presidency. The debate is an opportunity to remind them how fucking weird he is.
Nah. I could see this actually being a positive to his brain-dead supporters.
I think this will only strengthen his core supporters because they’ll view him as a martyr. It might push away some people on the fence. But I think the martyrdom angle and the increased media spotlight could pull some people back in. Personally I think it probably won’t make a difference overall. All publicity is good publicity.
Martyrs gotta die