Time for a #Covid stats update! Aussie actuarials just dropped their annual update last week — big thanks to @KarenCutter — your approach is a gold standard.
Context is great fun, almost as much as it is useful. We have a good picture of "good-news-bad-news".
2023 #mortality in context:
Standardised death rates (SDRs) for 2015 to 2023 — showing that very important pre-2019 data.
Y-axis is 400-600. We are approaching normal, but a way off.
@KarenCutter I'll show my 3 favourite graphs of the 2024 report.
More good-news-bad-news: Here, you can see September 2023 was a good moment.
The #excess_mortality chart is only 2022-2023 (Australia) but does give a breakdown of Total, Covid+related, Respiratory, Dementia, and Other Causes.
This corrects a "fact" I had from last November, when the (live, less reliable) data showed our first day of zero deaths since 2021 (delta lockdown). No sign of it here, oddly.
Trend: Ending in 2025
Australia: You Are Here
Where do you think you are on this map, if I took the year numbers off the timeline?
"The pandemic is over: 2022" is just as bad as "Mission Accomplished: 2003" (Iraq)
Most people got infected in 2022, then 3+ times since. My only two were in 2023, one with months of feeling dizzy-drunk. Despite a 2-week-old #booster 😓 #PandemicIsNotOver
It's not personal — if a chunk of folks are in denial that this hit them, too
But it does help answer: Will it be over? 2025?
People in 2020 were right to ask "When will the pandemic end?"
They may not have been right to go back to normal (May 2020, I'm looking at you), but the question is still VERY valid.
We're getting within reach now of seeing the end of #transmission — though I'd desperately like to see a sterilising immunity improved vaccine. Like, 12 months ago.
That still leaves one thing:
Ongoing illness, permanent damage. Plenty of advice 24 months ago to avoid the most infections for the most time.
Since #COVIDIsVascular …
When are we seeing #ventilation standards? I could've said improvements, but I'd just like a standard.
Or even metrics. I don't mean the air's freshness (CO2 is a useful proxy, $400, and a hole in the window). I mean some sort of numeric measurement for the building itself. A permanent value for the living / working space's ability to refresh its air.
Submarine designs have talked about this for a century.
And Germany has office & home window-opening culture.
Christian Kent