Rob NapierMar 18, 2024

This really drives home something about LLM systems. They’re very expensive to run, both to train and per-query, and hard to make cheaper. I expect them to get more expensive to run. They’re currently sold at a big loss to establish monopoly power and then raise prices dramatically. That’s the *stated* business plan.

If you’re building your business to rely on LLM, you need to factor in what you‘ll do when they pivot to making money, or they pull back because they can’t.
https://geeknews.chat/@theregister/112116266764229145

The Register (@[email protected])

Microsoft promises Copilot will be a 'moneymaker' in the long term Exec tells investors to 'temper' expectations as mission to convince customers of price tag continues Microsoft is asking investors to "temper" expectations for quick financial returns from Copilot amid efforts to convince customers that paying "substantial" sums each month is actually worth it.… #theregister #IT https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2024/03/18/microsoft_copilot_moneymaker/

Geek News Central Mastodon Chat
Show threadFrank ReiffMar 18, 2024
@cocoaphony @nicklockwood @theregister I find the technology fascinating, but it seems likely that when the hype wears off and the realization that “human-level” performance, especially as it relates to actual understanding, common sense and baseline reliability, is in fact not reachable with current stochastic parrot machine learning, the entire market is going to collapse.
Show threadMisuse CaseMar 18, 2024
@frankreiff @cocoaphony @nicklockwood @theregister This is another aspect of it, lots of companies/executives want to believe they can totally replace humans with it, but they can’t and they are going to find out the hard way. That realization and the price jack-up will hit them at the same time.
Show threadRob NapierMar 18, 2024

@MisuseCase @frankreiff @nicklockwood This is very much the story of Uber. They designed their business plan around self-driving cars. As those persistently failed to materialize, the company bled money for years. It's finally profitable after accepting that they're in the business of people-driven taxis, but it'll be a long time to make back what it cost to get there.

"No law can stop us!" has also turned out to be a challenging business model to make sustainable…

https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/8/24065999/uber-earnings-profitable-year-net-income

Uber ends the year in the black for the first time ever

Uber is finally profitable, after 15 years of trying. The company reported its first annual operating profit and positive net income, signaling stronger financial footing.

The Verge
Show threadMisuse CaseMar 18, 2024

@cocoaphony @frankreiff @nicklockwood I don’t believe it’s meant to be a sustainable business model I think it’s meant to be a cash grab.

With a lot of these “AI” things it’s much more obvious. Sam Altman and the like are trying to grab as much money and content as possible before a critical mass of people are wise to the con and/or regulation comes down.

Show threadPhilippa CowderoyMar 19, 2024
@MisuseCase @cocoaphony @frankreiff @nicklockwood The "grab" was meant to be owning the market ahead of when self-driving materialised - and failing that, deregulating it through BS. We'll have to see how the latter goes, because there's a genuine risk of them making the entire taxi market unsustainable for a decade or two across large regions before things recover.
Show threadMisuse CaseMar 19, 2024
@flippac @cocoaphony @frankreiff @nicklockwood Yeah, now you have “self-driving” Teslas and these Waymo and Cruise taxis that have problems and exhibit bizarre behaviors that human drivers never would, but get permits nonetheless.
Show threadPhilippa Cowderoy
@MisuseCase @cocoaphony @frankreiff @nicklockwood We're not going to see Uber running those any time soon: if the car's not responsible for the crashes, the company is and they're big enough to lose their shirt over it
Mar 19, 2024 at 1:51pmWeb