danah boyd
Ummm... This chart is TERRIFYING. Have the data centers that undergird AI already triggered this much of a shift in energy consumption? ::shudder:: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/07/ai-data-centers-power/
Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power

Artificial intelligence, data centers and the boom in clean-tech manufacturing are pushing America’s aging power grid to the brink. Utilities can’t keep up.

The Washington Post
Mar 8, 2024 at 2:16amWeb
Show threadPaul CantrellMar 8, 2024
@zephoria
And here I was hoping like a fool that this is electrification of heating and transportation driving demand
Show threadpeter sibleyMar 8, 2024
@zephoria What’s even more terrifying the amount of high energy AI algorithms will be used to solve well known / easy to solve problems.
Show threadBill, organizer of stuffMar 8, 2024
@zephoria I am pretty sure this is wrong - maybe missing data in earlier sources, maybe a change in the measurement/collection methodologies? I'm planning to dig into the underlying data sources soon, but a national doubling of energy consumption in 12 months just seems outside the realm of reasonableness to me. Just - how would the supply networks even handle that? We have trouble with holiday weekends and 3-day heat waves!
Show threadplay in progressMar 8, 2024
@wcbdata @zephoria Wait, I thought it was a doubling of *growth* in demand, not a doubling of total electrical energy consumption. Very different things!
Show threadBill, organizer of stuffMar 8, 2024
@playinprogress @zephoria Ahh - I can read it that way, too. That would be less unreasonable, but still wild! I need to dig more...
Show threadBill, organizer of stuffMar 8, 2024

@playinprogress @zephoria Finally had a moment to dig into this!

Some key points I've learned:
- Yes, this shows change in growth, not total demand. Nice catch!
- The rate does double, but only to 1.2% 10-year growth
- This does reverse a ≈10-year trend, but over 30 years, it's actually still historically low!
- The NERC report attributes almost all of the forecasted growth to two areas: EV charging and electrification of heating in traditionally oil/gas heat in regions.

Show threadEleanor SaittaMar 8, 2024
@zephoria
Assuming the excess over previous years was entirely ML, that corresponds to about 400,000 H100-class GPUs (and associated hardware), if my math is right, which is within what Nvidia is shipping.
Show threadBen HigbieMar 10, 2024
@zephoria my whole thing with AI is pretty much 'Havent you guys seen at least the first 2 Terminator films?' I know its a simple argument against it but I feel its all I need lol AI sucks, I hate it . It makes me nauseous when I look at it.
Show threadCatalyst CooperativeApr 18, 2024

@zephoria This conversation with @jgkoomey is a good counterpoint:

https://heatmap.news/podcast/shift-key-episode-10-ai-data-centers

A Skeptic’s Take on AI and Energy Growth

Inside episode 10 of Shift Key.

Heatmap News