@jeffjarvis So, this is the same poll as yesterday; they are just slowly releasing answers over time and harping on their favorite tune: “Biden is old.” I’d like to point out a big flaw in their poll beyond the chosen questions.
Look at the % of people they polled by population density: 24% city, 41% suburb, 35% rural. The actual population density in America: 31% urban, 55% suburban, 14% rural. They are over-representing rural voters by almost 3 to 1 in this poll. It doesn’t appear they corrected for this at all.
Also, 35% of their respondents are from the “South” region, only 20% from the northeast. Although they don’t specify exactly what that means, this doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to an even distribution.
Finally, 66% of their respondents were white. White people are 57.8% of the population according to the latest census.
In summary, this poll HEAVILY over represents southern rural white voters.
I stopped believing polls were even trying to be accurate when despite them, the GOP has been taken to the cleaners in most special elections and proposition ballots in swing areas, since Dobbs.
Instead I sit in a corner like this 🤞
@Edelruth @mls14 @jeffjarvis I'm not American, so things may be different over there, but here in Australia it's completely normal for the polls in a by-election (which I *think* is analogous to what you call a special election) to be less reliable than the polling in a nationwide federal election. I wouldn't put *too* much stock in that specific fact.
There may be other factors that make it right to mistrust polling, but I'd say not that one.
Jeff Jarvis
SouprMatt
Edelruth, PBS Passport Holder
Jim