Augie Ray

I am going to try to make this my last 🧵 about #COVID19 before Christmas, and I'll keep it to just a three-minute read:

- Right now is the most dangerous period in 1 or 2 years. In parts of the US, this is already the second-worst surge of the pandemic. And COVID is still rising. Next week will be more dangerous than this, and the week after that will be more dangerous, still.

- The WHO, CDC, and AMA have all recommended masks and caution in crowds. Almost no one is doing so. (1/10)

Dec 20, 2023 at 6:35pmWeb
Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023

- Right now, based on wastewater data, one of every 35 people is infectious. A room with just 10 people has a 1 in 4 chance of including someone COVID+, and a room with 25 people is likely to do so. COVID is transmitting today at a higher rate than over 90% of the pandemic to date. (2/10)

https://www.pmc19.com/data/index.php

Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative - COVID-19 Data Dashboard

Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023

- It isn't just an acute disease. Each reinfection increases the risks of Long COVID and other chronic problems. There is no cure for Long COVID. It often resolves, but it also destroys lives and health. The only prevention is to avoid getting COVID in the first place.

- Hundreds of studies have found COVID damages brains, hearts, reproductive organs, and immune systems. The fact you've had "mild" COVID in the past is no guarantee you'll be so lucky next time.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12VbMkvqUF9eSggJsdsFEjKs5x0ABxQJi5tvfzJIDd3U/edit?usp=sharing (3/10)

COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 Studies

Google Docs
Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023
We don't know what four, six, or ten infections will do to bodies, but the average person gets COVID roughly annually and at a 5- to 15x-higher rate than the flu. We'll only discover the true extent of the long-term damage from repeated infections in the years to come. (4/10)
Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023
Acute HIV infection is the earliest stage of HIV infection, and it generally resolves within a month or two; it doesn't develop into AIDS until seven to ten years later. We have no idea what repeated #COVID19 infections will do to bodies after a decade, and because so few are being cautious, we're going to find out the hard way. You can choose to be in the control group that is informed, smart, and cautious, or you can be in the test group. Choose wisely. (5/10)
Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023
If you're cautious and COVID doesn't cause long-term health problems (despite studies that today suggest otherwise), then you merely avoided the unpleasantness of acute illness (and steered clear of spreading this potentially deadly or disabling virus to others). But if you are careful now and we learn in five years that COVID does serious long-term damage, you'll be glad you were one of the smart ones. (6/10)
Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023

I don't avoid restaurants all the time. Nor do I tell you to wear masks 52 weeks a year. (Some more cautious people do both, and that isn't an unreasonable decision on their part!) But for the next month, the risks are exponentially higher than they've been most of the past year.

If the weather forecast says there's a risk of floods or blizzards, you adjust. Now, the COVID forecast is flashing warning signs. Will you ignore them and risk your and others' health? Or will adjust sensibly? (8/10)

Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023
Make smart decisions about risks. Do you need to go to that concert? Is there a reason you can't put on a mask while in a crowded airport or plane during boarding, taxiing, and deplaning? What appointments are optional and can be put off until later in January or February when this surge declines and safety improves? There are reasonable and smart questions to ask yourself in the coming weeks. Please, be reasonable and smart! (9/10)
Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023

Have a fun and safe Christmas, and start the new year in good health.

Links about #COVID19 for those who care to be more informed:

https://www.pmc19.com/data/index.php

https://biobot.io/data/

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/12/19/COVID-19-cdc-variant-jn1-fastest-growing/1451703040695/

https://www.axios.com/2023/12/19/new-covid-variant-holiday-surge-jn1

https://www.today.com/health/coronavirus/jn-1-covid-variant-symptoms-rcna129344

https://ca.style.yahoo.com/respiratory-illness-pregnancy-hilary-duff-covid-19-181818950.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12VbMkvqUF9eSggJsdsFEjKs5x0ABxQJi5tvfzJIDd3U/edit?usp=sharing

Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative - COVID-19 Data Dashboard

Show threadDavid FarnellDec 21, 2023
@augieray Thank you for sharing this. Here in Japan, things are a little better but still troubling. Only about 20% of my uni students mask, and most teachers have stopped masking during classes in crowded, poorly ventilated rooms. I always wear a N95 to teach, mainly to protect students. I had my 7th jab a month ago, but a lot of people have stopped getting boosters. Hardly a day goes by that I don't get messages from students that they've got a cough, fever, or tested positive for Covid.
Show threadDavid FarnellDec 21, 2023
@augieray I can't require them to wear masks, unfortunately (or even go very far in pushing them to--there are strict rules against it) but I do tell them every week that they must cover their mouths effectively when they cough or sneeze, whether by mask, tissue, sleeve...lately there has been an uptick in students asking me for a mask. I keep them in my computer bag, along with tissues and cough drops.
Show threadRaven OnthillDec 21, 2023

@augieray heightened risk of heart attack and stroke, as well as general vasculitis, are the story so far. Oh, and impotence and sterility. (And there's a bunch of other things, but that really ought to be enough.)

I don't think comparisons w AIDS are useful.

Show threadAugie RayDec 21, 2023
@ravenonthill I wasn't trying to compare it to AIDS but using HIV as an example of one of many viruses that don't cause serious implications until much later. Viruses like HIV and HPV don't seriously damage health and kill people for a decade or longer. Do we know what happens a decade after one COVID infection? How about four? THAT is my point.
Show threadRaven OnthillDec 22, 2023
@augieray I get that, but even the reference is problematic. Perhaps Epstein-Barr is a better choice?
Show threadAugie RayDec 22, 2023
@ravenonthill Yes, it probably would have been. However, a lot of very smart experts point out there ARE similarities between the ways COVID and HIV attacks the immune system, so I'm afraid time will tell how appropriate or not this comparison may be. Simple answer: We don't know what COVID will do to people 7-10 years later. THAT was the point being made.
Show threadGrandpa DonDec 21, 2023

@augieray
"plane during boarding, taxiing, and deplaning? "

Or the whole damned flight.
I wore my n95 15 hours, door to door, limo, 3 airports, 2 flights

Bitch still gave me COVID.

Show threadRaven OnthillDec 21, 2023
@dbc3 @augieray the "95" means 95%. It's good most of the time but it will not protect against a sufficiently long exposure to high levels of virus-laden aerosols. For air travel, you need a P100. There are some disposables available, they don't fit everyone, or there are those big masks with the double filters.
Show threaddraNgNonDec 20, 2023

@augieray after these last 4 years, I've concluded that everyone is super judgmental of other people for the precautions they do or do not take.

[everyone seems to think] those who are more cautious are paranoid; those who are less cautious are stupid.

I feel it in my own reactions; your language here reflects the above, by couching your own precautions with caveats & justifications. your commenters also react that way.

it's sad. catching or avoiding an airborne virus isn't a moral thing.

Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023
@draNgNon To what, precisely, do you object in my language? I'm trying very hard to be helpful, and as someone who has (at least) one infection himself, I intend no judgement. But I sure as heck am not going to apologize for urging smart decisions. We can make smart or dumb decisions, but we can't protect ourselves entirely, so getting the virus is not smart or dumb.
Show threaddraNgNonDec 20, 2023

@augieray I am not objecting to your language but noticing it reflects that social reaction. e.g., bracketing your advice with "I don't avoid restaurants all the time..."

so, I do, unless I can eat outdoors. I have friends who judge me for it, too: I'm too paranoid, I'm not mindful of the virus.

I saw some people replied as if attacked; that's what I mean. I don't think there's much you can do to avoid that reaction from others, they'll think you are paranoid or not cautious enough.

1/

Show threaddraNgNonDec 20, 2023

@augieray ...I guess I'm trying, in a badly phrased way, to support your posts (which I really appreciate, btw) but trying to comfort(?) you that a lot of people will react as if they are being judged, becuase our society has evolved in the last 4 years to sensitize us all to think it's a judgment.

2/2

Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023

@draNgNon Thanks. I use that sort of language because I think it's fine if people adopt the safety precautions that work for them. You might not go into an empty indoor restaurant while infections are low, but I might. Either way, it works for each of us. But what I really object to is all the people ignoring the risks and raising those risks for others.

I hope I didn't over-react, but I spend a LOT of time tracking & sharing data & studies and get tired of people nitpicking words in posts.

Show threaddraNgNonDec 20, 2023

@augieray heh

I guess a more succinct way of saying what I was trying to say is don't let 'em get you down, everyone reacts to anyone that way, when covid precautions are discussed.

what sucks isn't being judged, it's getting covid. people need to keep their eye on the ball. and I appreciate you do it. 🙏

Show threadhammerDec 21, 2023
@augieray i had covid & the flu 2 weeks ago. 1st time I've tested positive for covid. Bought N95 masks for future public trips and not going to any group events for the foreseeable future.
Show threadRay Gulick, he/him/wtf 🇺🇦 ❌👑Dec 20, 2023

@augieray

Strong "what if we make the world a better place for no good reason?" vibe.

Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023
@rgulick Exactly right! "What if I wear a mask, avoid illness, stop getting others sick, help to reduce the speed of COVID mutation, and suppress the rate of Long COVID for nothing?" 🙄
Show threadKelly's Shenanigans 🇨🇦Dec 20, 2023
@augieray i chose to be in the informed, careful group, but got infected anyway. It's not a choice for all of us.
Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023

@Kellyshenanigans Replies like yours frustrate me. No one can be 100% safe. As I said, the thing to be cautious about is repeated infections. Most of us have had at least one infection. (Like you, I've had one, as well.) That doesn't mean "it's not a choice" to be cautious and informed. Nothing is guaranteed, but being smart and cautious can reduce the risks for people.

Stop saying "it's not a choice." Whether you get 10 infections or one in the next decade IS a choice for many (but not all.)

Show threadKelly's Shenanigans 🇨🇦Dec 20, 2023
@augieray i wasn't trying to start a fight, i was expressing my frustration that despite my best efforts, i got infected anyway. Your hostility doesn't make it easy to be in a community of people trying to look out for each other and be careful together.
Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023
@Kellyshenanigans Sorry, I get it. I just think those of us who didn't avoid the one infection still have a choice. Too many think, "Well, that's that. No reason to be careful anymore." And I want to very much urge people to the exactly opposite thought: "I can't do anything about that infection, but I can strive to prevent my second, third or sixth!"
Show threadKelly's Shenanigans 🇨🇦Dec 20, 2023
@augieray been infected twice, still trying my best to be careful. It's very difficult with kids in school.
Show threadEllie Kennard has movedDec 20, 2023

@augieray
We're going to be a pretty small control group, assuming we avoid it forever and I live to 80 ish

#COVID19

Show threadAugie RayDec 20, 2023
@EllieK Well, I'm now in the one-infection group. I hope to stay there. I wish I was still in the control group, but I let my guard down. Now, my goal is to avoid a second infection (and hope for the best.)
Show threadKim Spence-Jones 🇬🇧😷Dec 20, 2023
@augieray Note this. 👆
#CovidRuinsLives
Show threadShambhu  Dec 21, 2023
Nice Work, @augieray
Thanks for sharing.
Also, We Need to #MaskUp guys, so that We can defeat this deadly Virus once again.
I'm Wondering Why Peoples or Goverments Don't Learnt from their Previous Mistakes & How One can Make a Trust on Statement of Authoritarian Regime #ccp & 🇨🇳.
I'm Now Trying to Fight for those Who Lost Their Lives due to #wuhan19 & held accountable those who Never tries to stop this #wuhan19 but Instead Praising efforts of #China ? http://tinyurl.com/chinasterrifiedtruthbyswaraj
China’s Terrified of The Truth Getting Out

YouTube
Show threadAndy MouseDec 20, 2023

@augieray

Thanks for the summary 👍

Show threadPeter FrederickDec 21, 2023
@augieray Thanks Augie. A great thread for all covid conscious folk. @auscovid19
#CovidIsAirborne
#CovidIsNotOver