I'm sure everyone is tired of discussing Threads and Meta (I know I am), but I just want to say I find any predictions of what Meta is going to do in the future that don't include discussion of the effects of the EU's Digital Markets Act unpersuasive. All of these companies are under intense scrutiny now, and not just by the EU, so I think that a prediction of what they're going to do based on the crap they got away with 10-15 years ago is not the slam dunk folks think it is.
@dgoldsmith I totally agree. They are not paying attention to the governments that have been coming after Big Tech at all. Heck Threads couldn't even launch in the EU because it wasn't compliant, yet somehow Meta will still go against all of these governing bodies.
@dgoldsmith Why do you think they even plan to do federation?
@helge Because they're already testing it. See this thread from the head of Instagram. Which I read via federation from Threads: https://www.threads.net/@mosseri/post/C046L7jvHBf. Or go to @mosseri and read his posts that way.
@dgoldsmith My question wasn't why you think _whether_ they are doing it, but _why_.
@helge Oh, got it. I don't know, but considering they announced starting to test it the same day they announced they were making Threads available in the EU, and given the EU's Digital Markets Act, my suspicion is it’s the easiest way for them to satisfy the regulatory requirement of being interoperable.

@dgoldsmith @helge This is actually the best argument I’ve heard so far. I find none of the others convincing, or at least can’t see them follow through with full federation.

Like, “they want content from the fediverse”. For that they’d just allow threads users to follow masto users but not vice-versa.

With the DMA perhaps they’re considering full federation. One can hope.

@finestructure @helge Well, they say they are planning full federation. They also say it will take a year to roll it all out (including allowing porting of accounts out of Threads).
@finestructure @helge Again, I'd read the whole thread from @mosseri. He lays out everything (they say) they're going to do.

@dgoldsmith Yeah, I’ve seen it - they just never really say why. What he lays out isn’t convincing in a way that’ll make it survive a cost review in Q2 or something like that.

DMA might be it and it would also make sense that they don’t say it. They’re not going to telegraph that regulation affects their plans - unless it’s in a way that it might put pressure on the regulators. I.e. when they delayed the EU launch.

I don’t think federation is like that, it’s too niche.

@finestructure The DMA specifically calls out interoperability as a remedy for gatekeepers, so I don't think they'll abandon it lightly.

@dgoldsmith A long time ago Deutsche Telekom was forced to open up their last mile telephone lines to competitors and they did it in such a way that one of them coined the beautiful term “strategische Inkompetenz” - which needs no translation 😄

God knows what creative incompetence might be unleashed to work around such regulation…

I want federation to happen, and I hope it doesn’t get sabotaged!

@dgoldsmith @helge Yeah, lots of opportunity to “hit roadblocks” … “readjust milestones” … “focus on other priorities” …

We’ll see where it’s at end of ‘24!

@finestructure @dgoldsmith TBH I don't think they would even bother with excuses. To me the question is still primarily the "why". The whole thing seems really weird to me, especially coming from Facebook.
Avoiding regulations might possibly be the answer to that (does this imply that Twitter is going to be unavailable unless they federate?), not sure I'm convinced.
I guess the one thing we can safely assume is that it isn't being done for the good of the Fediverse, but for profit.

@helge @dgoldsmith The DMA defines market controlling gatekeepers and you can’t really afford to ignore it. Meta meets the gatekeeper requirements in the social media category, Twitter doesn’t.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act

Digital Markets Act - Wikipedia