This paper looks good:

Global #energy #scenarios: A #geopolitical reality check

Few Energy System #Modelling scenarios consider geopolitics in any depth. Those that do often treat it as a barrier to #decarbonisation efforts.

There is a need for a more intricate understanding of the difference between ‘paper transitions’ and the real-world messiness and complexities. #Geopolitics simultaneously accelerates and hinders the #transformation process. #GEST

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378023001474