joep schuurkesNov 26, 2023
I knew the Dunning-Kruger effect wasn't valid, but thanks to this post I finally understand why: "The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation"
https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/04/08/the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-autocorrelation/
The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation – Economics from the Top Down

Do unskilled people actually underestimate their incompetence?

Economics from the Top Down
Show threadvriesk (Jan Srz)

@joeposaurus sorry, but no. The author of this "debunk" is significantly confused.

His argument for autocorrelation completely fails to see that what the research looks for - and found - is not a correlation, but a lack of perfect correlation (and how divergent it is).

Their counterexample - best illustrated by figure 7 - is a good show of their confusion: yes, in a sample of people that have a completely uncorrelated notion of perceived vs actual performance, the DK effect is at full glory.

Nov 26, 2023 at 1:06pmWeb
Show threadvriesk (Jan Srz)Nov 26, 2023

@joeposaurus .. that equivalent to say that in a society in which individuals assess their performance completely randomly, people are quite terrible at it (and for the poor performers, it's gonna be seen as overconfidence, while for the best performers, it's gonna be underconfidence).

Also, I'm not claiming DK study is super solid (because I don't know), but this debunk is rubbish.

Show threadvriesk (Jan Srz)Nov 26, 2023
@joeposaurus In other words, the null hypothesis (no effect) of the DK effect is points on a straight line (like the "x=x" example). All other patterns (once denoised) show some kind of effect to exist.
Show threadthe roamerNov 28, 2023

@vriesk @joeposaurus

Glad you point out the flaw in this invalid attempt to deny the existence of the DKE . Well argued, thanks!