HalvarFlakeOct 31, 2023

A quick thread on the intensity of Israel's invasion of Gaza. Language about "precision strikes" can distract from understanding just how intense the aerial campaign was.

Strategic bombing of civilian infrastructure was a staple of the Allied WW2 strategy. The estimated death toll among the civilian population was 350k-500k, on a population of 80m, so about 0.4-0.6% over a period of 3 years.

If the Gaza death toll is ballpark accurate, 8000 deaths on 2m inhabitants is 0.4% in *three weeks*.

Show threadZTOct 31, 2023
@HalvarFlake Either you say that Hamas has found valid "hacks" around norms, like firing from schools and mosques and locating military bases under hospitals and preventing civilians from evacuating and not sharing provisions with the civilians, and since these hacks are valid, now Hamas has an "I win" button/strategy, and nothing can be done against them, or you say that Hamas should not win, and you fight Hamas.
Show threadHalvarFlakeOct 31, 2023

@ZTarantov I think what I am saying is "please everybody be aware of the intensity of this". What I am also saying that Israel as a civil society will own what is happening now for generations, and being a democracy, in a different way than people that weren't born when Hamas last ran elections.

The road to strategic victory for Israel lies in prying civilians away from Hamas. My worry is that Bibi sees that that is difficult, and in true Bibi form, takes an alternative that is politically...

Show threadHalvarFlakeOct 31, 2023

@ZTarantov ...expedient, and may even include a tactical "win", but at enormous strategic costs for Israel as a free democracy (not to mention civilians in Gaza).

Afaict, the current gov isn't doing enough to help separate civilians from Hamas.

Show threadZTOct 31, 2023
@HalvarFlake I wish IDF could move unarmed civilians, or at least women and children, away from where the fighting happens. I have no idea how to do that. I hope IDF does, because obviously Hamas will try to increase civilian casualties and no amount of diplomatic skills (which are lacking anyway) will cover for results like Aleppo or Mariupol.
Show threadZT
@HalvarFlake And of course it could be worse than those examples, there AFAIK civilians were not prevented from leaving. Does Hamas have an RPG team for every building, to get every building shot? Possibly. 😟
Oct 31, 2023 at 5:45pmWeb