Ансельм Шмідт 🌻In #Poland, polling predicts a victory for the pro-European, pro-Ukrainian opposition (Tusk's Civic Coalition, The Third Way, and the New Left combined) despite the ruling far-right populist PiS remaining the strongest party and far-right Konfederacja in parliament. So far, exit polls seem to compare better to those in #Slovakia which failed to predict the victory of Fico's pro-Russian socialist–far-right alliance last month. #Sejm2023
With 56.1% of polling districts reporting, #PiS falls below 38% for the first time. #Sejm2023 #Poland
Interesting detail from the exit polls: PiS and KO are nearly tied even in small towns with up to 50,000 inhabitants. Only in villages PiS clearly remains the strongest party. #Sejm2023 #Poland
With 78.4% of precincts reporting, the official results continue to move towards the exit polls. As projected, the result for #PiS falls below 37%. #Sejm2023 #Poland
Even with 93.1% of precincts reporting, the share of #PiS continues to slowly decrease. The ruling party stands at 36.3% (–7.3%). KO is close to 30% (+2.5%), but the novel Third Way outperforms Exit Polls at 14.5%. The New Left stands at 8.4% (–4.2%) and far-right Konfederacja at 7.2% (+0.4%). Currently, a diverse pro-European opposition would receive 244 of 460 seats (53%) – compared to PiS' 197 and Konfederacja's 19. #Sejm2023 #Poland
The opposition closes in on 250 seats in parliament (54%) while #PiS, in a desperate last stand, tries to delay the certification of results from abroad, especially from Germany.
Warszawa: 92.2% reporting
Abroad: 70.7% reporting (but only 44.7% from Germany)
Total: 97.5% reporting
In the Senate, the defeat of #PiS is even more crushing than in the Sejm. The Senate Pact 2023 proved to be an extremely effective alliance between Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way, New Left, and independent candidates. It is projected to win a total of 66 seats, with even the Coalition alone surpassing PiS as strongest party in the new Senate. #Sejm2023 #Poland
99.62% of precincts have reported their results. Of the remaining 120, 58 are within #Poland and 62 abroad. In all countries abroad, except Hungary (which did not report any results yet), Tusk's Civic Coalition is way ahead. Of the pending precincts within #Poland, 27 are in constituencies where the Coalition leads and only six in constituencies where #PiS leads. #Legionowo in the Northern suburbs of Warsaw remains the only city not reporting any votes yet. #Sejm2023
With 100% of precincts reporting, #PiS (34.4%, –8.2% compared to 2019) significantly underperforms exit polls. Tusk's KO (30.7%, +3.3%) also fares a bit worse than projected, with the Third Way (14.4%) exceeding expectations. The New Left receives the expected 8.6% (–4.0%) and far-right Konfederacja 7.2% (+0.4%) overperforms by a percentage point. In contrast to Slovakia though, exit polls were very reliable. #Sejm2023 #Poland