Lew Perin

Weather predictions have improved a lot in my lifetime, but for the last few days NYC has been in a weather system where the near term rainfall predictions have been useless. Not for the first time, to put it mildly.

The underlying models must generate confidence intervals, right? Why are they unavailable to the general public? Or am I missing something?

#meteorology

Sep 10, 2023 at 4:12pmWeb
Show threadTed TodorovSep 10, 2023
@babelcarp got soaked without an umbrella earlier but was hoping the forecast wasn’t equally inaccurate for after 12PM. Nope, still raining
Show thread[marsh] has moved!Sep 10, 2023

@babelcarp you're totally right. They usually have many ensemble members and from that you can get the mean and spread, but only if you want to load all the data.

I agree it's surprising it's not better exposed to the public. Current weather models and their delivery are lacking (see my toot from this morning 😶‍🌫️)