Ian Livingston 🌪

Be cautious of anyone calling yesterday a bust with regard to severe weather. 1000+ reports is quite a lot and will grow.

Arguably the highest risk area (red here) from SPC got a bit shafted, esp the southern half of it.

in the DC area the Jul 29 event was a very high bar. I think the damage was worse than the 2012 derecho in my neighborhood.

Convective damage is often fickle. #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

Aug 8, 2023 at 12:08pmWeb
Show threadIan Livingston 🌪Aug 8, 2023
Here's practically perfect... if the reports were a forecast. Would verify a large-scale high risk for wind from SPC. Does tend to run hotter than they'll forecast...
Show threadDr. Brad Rosenheim has moved!Aug 8, 2023
@ianlivingston There is a duck sitting on Kansas.
Show threadThe Cat HerderAug 8, 2023
@Brad_Rosenheim @ianlivingston And it’s eating Cheyenne.
Show threadIan Livingston 🌪Aug 8, 2023
@Brad_Rosenheim haha true
Show threadAI6YR BenAug 8, 2023
@Brad_Rosenheim @ianlivingston Must queue up Ernie 😂 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBvtD6xs77g
Muppet Songs: Ernie - Rubber Duckie

YouTube
Show threadAI6YR BenAug 8, 2023
@ianlivingston "DUCK!"
Show threadColes Street PotholeAug 8, 2023
@ianlivingston Plains states better duck!
Show threadAI6YR BenAug 8, 2023
@ColesStreetPothole @ianlivingston Glad Ian was able to wade through all those weather reports today 😉
Show threadTim SupinieAug 8, 2023
@ianlivingston Yeah, the practically perfect verification is more tuned to areas west of the Appalachians, and it tends to produce big numbers on the east coast where the population (and tree) density is higher. The same storm moved 500 miles westward isn't producing 901 (and counting) reports of wind damage. Which is tricky to calibrate to.
Show threadIan Livingston 🌪Aug 8, 2023
@plustssn didn’t think that part through but good point. Does seem in general they won’t forecast the kind of numbers it can spit out but I don’t look too often tbh. Not sure it has a ton of public usefulness
Show threadChris ColemanAug 8, 2023

@ianlivingston

This kind of weather is always very localized, and people can’t see past their own backyards.

Unless it’s something extremely visible in the news—a massive flood, an F3 tornado, or widespread power outages—complainers will always complain that it was a was a bust. Except, of course, if it personally affects them.

Show threadIan Livingston 🌪Aug 8, 2023
@Chris yep pretty much. Severe damage is usually relatively spotty
Show threadChris ColemanAug 8, 2023

@ianlivingston Last summer a 5-10 minute storm broke a 15-inch tree trunk in my yard 50 feet up, and my street was covered in branches. We lost power for several hours. I saw a whole tree down about a block from me.

Another block past that, there wasn't a single leaf on the ground.

Show threadDavid Schuetz ** looking for work **Aug 8, 2023

@Chris @ianlivingston In Chantilly, at least, I was surprised by how quickly it passed over. Super fast ramp-up to heavy rain and strong gusts as the leading edge hit us, then after 2 minutes, no wind and just moderate rain. Didn't even get a lot of lightning.

I imagine other cells had different results, and certainly am not complaining. I was glad for the "hype," as it kept me prepared (if maybe a little obsessed with website refreshes and SKYWARN listening), then relieved as it passed by with little effect for us.

Show threadPhilip Mallegol-HansenAug 8, 2023
@ianlivingston I can’t get over the duck hanging out in the Midwest.
Show threadIan Livingston 🌪Aug 8, 2023
@philip somehow didn’t see it till people here pointed it out!
Show threadWord of Mouth Aug 8, 2023
@ianlivingston Oh my GOD that giant rubber duck is headed straight toward me!!
Show threadPlay Ball and Fight FascistsAug 8, 2023

@ianlivingston
Our neighborhood once again got very lucky - that's been the pattern for us all summer.

I don't mind at all, but I have to remind myself that pattern may stop with any given storm.