This whole #LK99 room temperature superconductor thing is pretty fascinating. Even the cautious scientists are like "probably not real but if it is it'll be world changing" which is.. not something you see every day.

If there's anything that makes me (as an extreme lay person) think it might be real it's that the people behind it are literally fighting over who gets credit, including dueling preprint papers and everything.

If it was a scam or they didn't really believe they had something, you'd kind of expect the opposite? If they're wrong they're fucked. Unlike billionaires (or even millionaires), scientists who tank their reputations really can lose their shirts.

Definitely wish more of the conversations about this were happening in places I can follow from the fediverse though.

The weirdest twist in the #lk99 saga so far is a very odd Russian woman on the site formerly known as Twitter (iris_igb) liveposting an extremely kitchen meth lab kind of attempt to reproduce the process while also criticising the methods in the paper and then posting photos of a very tiny possibly levitating rock at the end.

When asked why she's doing it in the kitchen, she snaps back if they'd rather she have to take four hours of transit to the lab.

Anyways, like I said, fascinating lol.

Link to nitter of the thread: https://nitter.net/iris_IGB/status/1685265405386878977

So the brief summary of where this whole #lk99 thing is now (keeping in mind that I am not an expert on this, I am just often good at absorbing and synthesizing information I'm interested in - I am trying my best to be skeptical and represent things clearly), without links because I'm tired but it's not too hard to find things at this point:

- one of the original papers was updated on arxiv with some errors fixed and some new graphs. Apparently mildly helpful but nothing very groundbreaking. It sounds like the process described in the paper is old - from their initial attempts to replicate what might have been a somewhat accidental discovery.
- there's also patents, and those have another description of process that is slightly contradictory but may also be old.
- Allegedly there's a paper going through "proper" peer review (not the kind that's happening on the internet right now but the very formal journal process) that might have their most up to date method. They've talked about helping reproduce after that goes through review.
- conflicting reports of the original lab giving samples to other labs for characterization. MIT might have one? Unclear.
- so many reproduction attempts going on that prices on precursors has spiked. Probably limiting the number of Western labs that can do it. Chinese labs seem to just have the stuff on hand so they have a head start and there are a lot of them.
- a theoretical physics paper showed a possible explanation for how it might be superconducting using simulation software came out, but there's a lot of caveats around how it applies to the real world. It does however imply that the thermodynamically preferred chemical reaction would produce a non-superconducting crystal though, so that might explain the difficulty producing pure samples of the "good kind". The produced material is likely mostly not special.
- the first round of replications to finish (other than the Russian lady I mentioned up thread) were negative, from an Indian lab and a Chinese lab. Neither reported either diamagnetism ("floating rock") or superconductivity.
- today a *bunch* of videos out of Chinese labs have shown samples floating over magnetic fields of both polarities (diamagnetism). The samples are very small and chunky. None of those have come with successful superconducting tests but, if I understand correctly, this is hard to test with these kinds of samples because the impurity of any sample large enough to visibly show diamagnetism would also act more like a semiconductor or even a resistor.

A lot of this seems to really hinge on the likelihood of a diamagnet that is this strong and not a superconductor. There are other non-superconducting diamagnets, but they are not this strong.

Also, it's likely that if it *is* superconducting, it's a new kind. Lots of talk of "1d superconducting" which I think means that it has a high degree of directionality vs other SCs. This means that it wouldn't do the "flux pinning" thing that others do because it will slide along the flux lines rather than getting stuck in a minima. But that is an extremely lay understanding of it so don't take my word for it.

To me this looks like a "where there's smoke there's fire" kind of thing. At this point, whatever it is, it seems to be at least novel and likely to open up new avenues of research. The videos by other labs showing similar magnetic effects make fraud seem unlikely, and might already by better replications than any of the early ones that happened with the cold fusion thing in the 80s. Certainly they're more visceral and less abstract.

This is probably a good blog to keep bookmarked, though keep in mind it's only updated once a day: https://eirifu.wordpress.com/2023/07/30/lk-99-superconductor-summary/

And this list via nitter is a decent firehose of stuff but wading through it can be.. exhausting because of random arguments breaking out and various cryptobros and similar interjecting hypey nonsense: https://nitter.net/i/lists/1684446795731206144

LK-99: The Live Online Race for a Room-Temperature Superconductor (Summary)

Disclaimer: I’m not a materials scientist. I may update this over time as I collate more information. Click here to go down to the update log. Click here for the table. On 22 July 2023, two m…

Eiri Sanada

Now is a good time to raise your skepticism levels and assume new videos and such that are too good to be true are probably not true with #lk99.

Some fake YouTube videos are out (some pretty obvious like the one that called it "jk99" and others less so), there's a new account over there claiming to be part of a lab that has miraculous reproductions of the original paper but she doesn't say what lab and her name is that of an Indian actress that doesn't seem to exist in the academic world and her PFP and banner images don't hit in tineye (which I would expect an academic's headshot to, let alone a photo of a university building as in the banner. ML generated? What a world).

So yeah. Trolls are probably coming out in full force now and it's gonna get even harder to tell fact from fiction sadly. Doesn't mean there isn't a kernel of truth to be figured out somewhere in there, though.

(I do actually think the Russian lady was legit though. If she's a troll she's a very odd one)

Today's #lk99 news is an apparent replication of superconductivity....

At 110 Kelvin. Which is decidedly not room temperature (-163C). In the process they did observe a big resistance drop at a higher temp (though still relatively cold), but not to 0.

Apparently this might still be a record for atmospheric pressure, so still pretty good. And they don't exactly rule out that there's something else going on. But it is an interesting development.

Link to the video and a kind of rough translation of the transcript ("extraterrestrial super islands" presumably means "room temperature super conducting" or maybe "atmospheric pressure superconducting") in this nitter link: https://nitter.net/altryne/status/1686796796859908096

Edit: preprint of their replication paper is here https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192

At this point, with one preprinted replication and Andrew mccalip's replication (documented pretty extensively over on twitter: https://nitter.net/andrewmccalip/status/1687405505604734978) it seems like if nothing else strong diamagnetism in #lk99 is basically all but confirmed.

Lots of people saying "that's not sufficient to be a superconductor" but my understanding is that even if it's not this is probably an unusually strong diamagnet (keep in mind it is heavier than graphite, which is often cited) at room temperature. That alone seems pretty significant?

Basically all the samples that have been shown to float do so at an angle and I've seen people say this both proves and disproves meisner effect specifically (the superconducting kind of diamagnetism) so I dunno what's up with that. The fact that they all do it might suggest though that that's inherent and not just because of non-superconductor parts being held down? I dunno. Not an expert.

And Iris' (the Russian lady) fast replication looks more and more credible for looking just a lot like most of the other replications but earlier, and not like the obvious hoaxes which tended to show bigger chunks to be impressive. No one but the original team has credibly shown more than a tiny fleck doing the thing so far afaik. Allegedly she's taken her samples to the physics lab of the school where she's doing her PhD and they're doing analysis on it, so that one might become more official soon too.

Oh and the original team also put out a new video of a different sample doing the thing (again at an angle) btw, with a thermometer in the video showing room temperature.

Btw the Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99) has a list of current replication attempts and status', though of course the editors are bickering over what to include because what is a "collection of all knowledge" if it's not run by pedantic gatekeepers. Still it has most of them, and definitely has all the most authoritative.

To sum up, the current state seems to be: there's something here worth understanding, and it's worth more investigation. Which is very cool.

My next favorite part of all of the #lk99 saga is MS Paint diagrams used to explain the tilting diamagnetic behavior in terms of a 1d (anisotropic) field exclusion: https://nitter.net/ESYudkowsky/status/1687589144242044930

Also there's a fairly credible (but still fakeable in 2023) looking video of what seems to be a fully levitating (but still tilted and wobbling) fragment going around Chinese social media (and it's a follow-up to a previous more normal looking reproduction). But no one is sure if it's associated with a specific institution or anything yet so ya know, big old grain of salt: https://v.douyin.com/iJFypWc5/

Incidentally I think there are some really specific reasons why #lk99 is a good science "event" to be playing out in public that don't necessarily map to other things as well. And some of those things have a lot to do with why I'm highlighting what I am in this thread (mostly positive developments).

Specifically, a confluence of the following:
- it is entirely theoretically possible (unlike useful cold fusion which requires new physics)

- it has at least a very small potential to be a transistor-level breakthrough in technology, or at least to lead to one if it pans out, so it is inherently exciting (unlike, say, photovoltaic improvements which are important but incremental).

- positive experimental outcomes are physically observable in the real world by humans using their eyes (unlike anything coming out of particle accelerators, theoretical physics, or astronomy).

- negative experimental outcomes don't really mean all that much, because, at best, they can only really affect the theoretical shape of the thing being observed in positive experiments. So maybe it's not a superconductor: doesn't mean it won't be a massive breakthrough (again, unlike cold fusion where replication was *necessary* to demonstrate effects since those effects were subtle, and it never materialized, and even the effects observed were dubious and of low value).

- the fact that the paper was released early creates a lot of intrigue and the fact that the early preprint included (bad) instructions for reproduction allowed for people all over the world to try it themselves, which probably wouldn't have been the case if it had followed the plan the inventors were trying to follow (where instructions would have maybe never come out except in obfuscated patents, and certainly not before they could establish a royalty regime on it).

- while faking results is pretty easy, we've probably passed the point of that being likely from the original team and Internet trolls are, frankly, pretty lazy and tend to make the same kinds of fakes over and over again. They go much bigger than they ought to because fooling someone with something subtle is just.. not as fun. I could write a whole post about this one thing tbh, but maybe another time.

Basically it's a perfect storm of conditions for a real time science in the open bonanza. That this is unusual is also a really good demonstration of how stifled science and engineering have become in terms of their relationships to the public and even related fields.

But everything isn't like this. It's just proof that you can't really just adopt extreme skepticism as a blanket policy to all scientific advance. Sometimes things actually happen.

Frankly, it seems like material sciences have been going through a bit of a revolution lately and a *lot* of other kinds of scientific progress has been held back waiting for this. So whatever happens with this I think we're in for a bit of a ride.

Well, my mind has been elsewhere for the last couple of days and boy has the lk99 mood shifted.

Lots and lots of different pieces of info, mostly negative really. There's.. a lot of inconsistencies between the different negatives though so.. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I think probably the most interesting negative one is one that showed that one of the compounds (CuS2) that's involved has a *big* resistance drop around 385K which is just a bit below the claimed critical temp of lk99. The assertion is that that could fool someone into thinking it was SC. (Preprint: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.04353)

I'm a little less swayed by the claim of "soft ferromagnetism" because it seems really focused on the tiny samples we've seen in replications. I dunno that that really expands to the original large sample? But I'm not an expert so.. And then we go back to fraud being a possibility. I'm still pretty skeptical of that.

Right now I think if you're looking to stay positive, the main thing you have is just waiting to see what comes out of the shared original samples, which more info has emerged about recently. That's pretty tenuous though.

I think this is about as far as following it second hand through me can take anyone. The papers coming out are more and more technical (and thus harder to reason about for me) and I don't think it's going to slow down or get any easier. More and more fake replications as well. So it's just all getting too murky for me.

Barring anything particularly special I'm probably going to check out of regular updates for a bit. It's just time to be patient and see what happens.

First order transition in Pb$_{10-x}$Cu$_x$(PO$_4$)$_6$O ($0.9<x<1.1$) containing Cu$_2$S

Lee et al. reported that the compound LK99, with a chemical formula of Pb$_{10-x}$Cu$_x$(PO$_4$)$_6$O ($0.9<x<1.1$), exhibits room-temperature superconductivity under ambient pressure. In this study, we investigated the transport and magnetic properties of pure Cu$_2$S and LK-99 containing Cu$_2$S. We observed a sharp superconducting-like transition and a thermal hysteresis behavior in the resistivity and magnetic susceptibility. However, we did not observe zero-resistivity below the transition temperature. We argue that the so-called superconducting behavior in LK-99 is most likely due to a reduction in resistivity caused by the first order structural phase transition of Cu$_2$S at around 385 K, from the $β$ phase at high temperature to the $γ$ phase at low temperature.

arXiv.org
@megmac that’s a really good breakdown. Im basically keeping up with #lk99 through your posts.
@megmac 👍 I have a small bet running with a buddy that this will be a real ambient super conductor. It’s funny to me that he added a whole bunch of conditions (able to make wires, useful current density, reasonable yield and manufacture…), which I think (and hope) misunderstands material science. The “yep, it works”, I expect to be more of hugely consequential existence proof in maths. Eventual applications more likely come from new insights and techniques that opens up.
@megmac I am enjoying following this through your updates.